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Peak Oil and Solutions for Hawaii's Future - Tahunatics - 12-22-2006
Peak Oil has come up on other threads over the past year so I thought it was time for it to have it's own thread.
If I may start with a quote from Hotzcatz:
Here's a fun little excerpt from the Honolulu Star Bulletin. It is a warning on "peak oil" and how that will affect Hawaii. It came out earlier this month.
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http://starbulletin.com/2006/12/10/editorial/special3.html
"HAWAII HAS one of the highest rates of per capita oil consumption in the world. Our rate in Hawaii is twice that of the U.S. average; four times the average of Europe and 28 times that of China. Moreover, oil not only fuels our transportation and electricity-generating plants, it also fuels the airplanes that fuel our tourist-based economy and the ships that bring in almost all of our food and consumer goods. Un- or insufficiently mitigated oil supply shortfalls will hit Hawaii much harder than almost any other place in the world."
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Add this Peak Oil whammy to the upcoming decline of (I'm guessing) 20% to 30% of real estate values this year, increased living costs of at least 15% (remember Matson asking to increase the shipping rates by 10.7% and gas going up by 11 cents a gallon in January?) and all those ARMs out there starting to hit their first rachet up point. Did you know that many of the ARMs are tied into LIBOR which is the London interest rate index and not the U.S. federal interest rate indexes? T'ain't nothin' the Feds can do to change the London rate so even if the U.S. interest rate goes down, those ARMs are still gonna go up.
Dare we mention the dollar being devalued? Many economists expect our national economy to crash once the dollar gets to eighty cents against the world market. At this moment it is at eighty two cents.
Forget about leveraging more real estate deals, right now paid off real estate is what you want. Paid for "stuff" that you have in hand is better than stuff you still owe money for. Write out a budget, trim off everything you don't need, pay down all the bills you can and figure out if your job and lifestyle will survive a huge drop in tourism and a big increase in gas prices, increased unemployment and double digit inflation.
Oh, for those of you who follow real estate curves, traditionaly the gap between the decline in sales volume and the price decrease is about two years. However, with all these other economic factors out there, I expect the price drop to show up about six months early (the sales volume drop was Nov/Dec. '05) and the price drop to be much more severe, maybe up to 40% to 60% by 2008 or 2009. It isn't just houses, our whole economy is about to hit the wall.
My suggestion is to plant a garden and buy non-hybrid seeds so you will be able to save and replant seeds from your crops. Maybe you'll have to become a vegetarian, but you'll still be eating.
2007 will be the beginning of our next Great Depression, so start getting ready for it now.
Edited by - hotzcatz on 12/21/2006 07:15:27
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Tahunatics:
Simplified explanation of Peak Oil:
http://www.solarwindhydropower.com/peakoil.html
There is evidence that global oil production actually peaked last December and OPEC has produced less oil every month since for the past year. Peak oil is here now, not 10 or 20 years from now!
This was the subject of those 'secretive' energy task force meetings Cheney held years ago (according to task force member Matt Simmons now sounding the alarm about peak oil).
Here's a Sept. 30, 2006 interview with Matt Simmons: Topic: Update on Peak Oil and Beyond
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2006-0930-2.mp3
http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid=-429585738009344102&q=Peak+oil
http://www.twilightinthedesert.com/
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/people/matt_simmons
Peak oil has been kept a secret to delay panic as they fear it will make our financial systems and dollar collapse. This why we are really in Iraq and will be fighting more wars for every last drop of oil instead of creating an 'apollo' program for alternative energy and to find solutions to wean us off of oil. The problem is we eat oil. It takes 10 calories of fossil fuels to put each single calorie of food on our table (this is the most unbelievably huge problem for the future of the human race).
http://www.energybulletin.net/4505.html
http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid=8677389869548020370&q=Oil%2C+smoke+and+mirrors
My wife and I have been aware of Peak oil for years and have been preparing for it. Getting out of debt, we've planted oil palm trees for future biodiesel production, a full organic orchard with over 100 fruit trees. We are preparing to build an off-the-grid home with wind and pv's, a permaculture farm including aquaculture.
There have been three presentations to Congress regarding Peak Oil by Republican Congressman Roscoe Bartlett - MD. Below are links to info on his Congressional web site.
http://www.bartlett.house.gov/Issues/Issue/?IssueID=2057
http://www.bartlett.house.gov/EnergyUpdates/
More info on Peak oil:
http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid=-1788267254418557572
http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid=5459242714549184261&q=End+of+suburbia
http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/
http://www.energybulletin.net/
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/
http://www.oildepletionprotocol.org/
http://www.communitysolution.org/
http://www.postcarbon.org/
http://www.aspousa.org/fall2006/index.cfm
Many cities are jumping on the band wagon:http://www.energybulletin.net/15086.html
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/
http://www.peakoil.net/
http://www.peakoil.org/
http://www.peakoil.com/
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
http://www.crudeawakening.org/
http://www.crudeawakening.net/
100 Things You Can Do to Get Ready for Peak Oil:
http://www.energybulletin.net/23645.html
Edited by - Tahunatics on 12/22/2006 06:34:58
RE: Peak Oil and Solutions for Hawaii's Future - Hotzcatz - 12-22-2006
Yee gawds & Little Fishes, Tahunatic! Don't overwhelm them right at the beginning! Sneak up on them a little bit first, then overwhelm them. They will be stunned from the first bit and easier to catch.
Actually, once the holidays are over, I'll come back and start in on the links on your page.
How do you think the symptoms of all this will start arriving? Will it be slow where folks can work into it or a big "hit the wall" sort of effect? Maybe start slow and then snowball?
Organic gardening with non-hybrid non-GMO seeds is a good way to get folks heading in the right direction. Gardens are pleasant and full of tasty things whether there is peak oil out there or not.
RE: Peak Oil and Solutions for Hawaii's Future - NYCbert - 12-22-2006
the whole "peak oil" phonomenon is misunderstood by many self-proclaimed "environmentalists" who are spreading a great deal of mis-information.
First off, Middle Eastern oil is not running out. Saudi Arabia's reserves are still the subject of much speculation, they claim to be able to supply 15 million barrels a day for the next 50 years (currently they produce 9 million/day). Iraq has reserves comparable to Saudi, but recently, the locals have more pressing concerns (such as getting rid of the US army)
Russia has enormous untapped Siberian reserves, as does Canada, Indonesia, Central Africa, the South Atlantic and Antartica. These untapped fields have so far remained undisturbed, as it currently isn't economically viable to start operations there. It probably won't be in the forseeable future, due to the forcasted weakening world economy and decreasing demand from China and the far east. But the oil will still be there if some disaster happens and the ME implodes.
THE SKY IS NOT FALLING.
Now the bad news.
Economic forcasts for the next 10 years predict that global demand will exceed supply. This may be crystal-ball gazing, but China now had a taste for the black stuff. They've reined in their consumption due to the high world oil prices, but when the economy makes it's next upswing in 2008 things will change.
Great depression? hardly! There's an expected economic slowdown in reaction to the huge growth this year, but nothing to panic about. Move your money into gold and precious metal funds and ride it out. I've decided to put off any property purchase for the next 1-2 years and let the gold markets hold my cash.
Don't go investing in tinned food and shotgun shells just yet
RE: Peak Oil and Solutions for Hawaii's Future - nanasohana - 12-23-2006
Our church leaders are always telling us to build up a years supply of food or as much as possible, get out of debt and live within your means, garden if you can, keep an emergency kit, get as much education as you can, and get as healthy as possible by not using tabbaco or alcohol or other harmful drugs. Keep your spiritual side strong and have hope and faith. I think that is the best way to prepare for the future and what it holds. Who knows what will really happen, be it major ecomomic collaspe if we do have an oil crisis, or a personal crisis such as job loss or illness. Those simple things could make big differences for all of us and our families. And if we are in the practice of being a caring family member, serving each other, helping our neighors, and trying to be a good friend and citizen, then we are preparing for the future what ever it holds. And I personally would like to own a few acres of fertile land somewhere to take my family to live on instead of some gold or stocks. Can't eat those.
RE: Peak Oil and Solutions for Hawaii's Future - pslamont - 12-23-2006
I vote for Nancy's philosohy. I belong to neither a church nor a religion, but I know that we must all help ourselves and our neighbors through prudent living. Thank you everyone for your help in our process. Our most recent experiment with hydrponic lettuce seems to be going well, so we are on our way to a moderate level of self sufficiency!
Pam
Just another day in P A R A D I S E !!
RE: Peak Oil and Solutions for Hawaii's Future - JerryCarr - 12-23-2006
Amen, Nancy. Whether part of religious design or just good old practicality, I endorse your philosophy and practice it as much as I can.
Cheers,
Jerry
RE: Peak Oil and Solutions for Hawaii's Future - Kapohocat - 12-23-2006
Or like the Hawaiians of old.... plant kukui trees...
can supply "oils" for lamps, use as skin oil, and many other uses.... such as the Antiviral agent derived from the hull of the kukui nut
http://www.freepatentsonline.com/5213798.html
RE: Peak Oil and Solutions for Hawaii's Future - Tahunatics - 01-08-2007
Biodiesel plant coming to Big Island. It's been many years in the works, now it's official.
http://starbulletin.com/2007/01/08/news/story08.html
Edited by - Tahunatics on 01/08/2007 10:13:37
RE: Peak Oil and Solutions for Hawaii's Future - Hotzcatz - 01-08-2007
It seems there is a lot of grass roots concerns with the peak oil. The electric car is back again, and it is a really nice one this time. Check out Tesla Motors and see! In the next year or so, they anticipate a less expensive car and the year after that an even cheaper one. Don't know if the less expensive versions will outperform a Porshe 911 though.
http://www.teslamotors.com/index.php?js_enabled=1
A hui hou!
Catz
RE: Peak Oil and Solutions for Hawaii's Future - Tahunatics - 01-26-2008
Peak Oil is on front page of today's Wall Street Journal / US News & World Report
Wall Street Journal: In a World Short Of Oil, Provisions Must Be Made
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120128939885117541.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_page_one
Shell Admits Cheap Oil Is Running Out
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/beyond-the-barrel/2008/1/25/shell-admits-cheap-oil-is-running-out.html
President Bush Questions Saudi Ability to Raise Oil Supply
http://www.prweb.com/releases/peak/oil/prweb635891.htm
In an ABC Nightline interview, President Bush recently said of Saudi Arabia, "If they don't have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do." According to TheOilDrum.com, this statement seems to indicate that George W. Bush, like many others, is skeptical of Saudi oil production claims. Forecasts of future world oil production by official organization like the IEA and the EIA assume OPEC can increase production by any desired amount; if OPEC's capability is limited, official production forecasts are optimistic because they are based on false assumptions.