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+--- Thread: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) (/showthread.php?tid=21469)
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RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - HereOnThePrimalEdge - 04-13-2020
If at any time evidence presents itself contrary to what you believe, write it down because the nature of the brain is to ignore it 30 minutes later.
It’s almost as if someone were to say, “The best you can do is watch trends.” Then, when they’re provided with evidence and a real world example for a current trend, they ignore the implications because it contradicts their belief system. At which point they suggest the exact opposite of the trend as a likely outcome.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - kander - 04-13-2020
Really..
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/crime/fl-ne-florida-crime-rate-report-20200413-r333o4nfozg7rkmlc4jcradjue-story.html
https://abc11.com/covid-19-crime-rates-by-city-in-north-carolina-nc/6087452/
https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/local/story/2020/mar/31/early-crime-stats-suggest-domestic-violence-a/519574/
https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/major-crimes-up-12-percent-in-nyc-despite-covid-19-outbreak/
and this is global.. So is crime going down or up?
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - HereOnThePrimalEdge - 04-13-2020
I checked one of your sources, your NY Post story, the 12% increase is for the first 3 months of the year. Aren’t we discussing the criminal activity after COVID-19 restrictions and stay-at-home decrees? Or are we cherry picking numbers that prove a point and hope nobody clicks the link?
The U.S. virus epicenter in New York saw major crimes — murder, rape, robbery, burglary, assault, grand larceny and car theft — decrease by 12% from February to March.
It’s rare for a city to see a double-digit drop in crime, even over a much longer period. During New York City’s 1990s crime decline, one of the biggest turnarounds in American history, crime dropped about 40% over three years. That makes the drop-offs occurring now — in a period of just a couple of weeks — even more seismic.
Across Latin America, crime is down to levels unseen in decades.
https://apnews.com/bbb7adc88d3fa067c5c1b5c72a1a8aa6
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - kander - 04-13-2020
Diversionary statements does not create a valid response. Is the crime rate really going down or is it going up? Is the trend sunshine and lollypops or ****show?
Already seeing opportunists taking advantage in Oahu with smash and grabs just in the past couple days.
Eh, your statement was about watching trends.. where does the trend go?
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - HereOnThePrimalEdge - 04-13-2020
Diversionary statements does not create a valid response.
A direct response to the subject matter is not a diversion.
Is the crime rate really going down or is it going up?
Statistically, since COVID-19 restrictions have been implemented, down.
Already seeing opportunists taking advantage in Oahu with smash and grabs just in the past couple days.
There is always crime. Even when crime is at the lowest level ever, there is still crime. When the crime rate is trending downward, it doesn’t mean there is no crime.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - ironyak - 04-13-2020
So is crime going down or up?
Both - it all depends on how you frame the question. Pick your time frame, geography, and general or specific crime of interest and you can show both increases and decreases. What story do you want to hear? Which is being sold to you and why?
There appears to be this strange need to simplify the complexity into sound-byte summaries and then argue over which is least incorrect...
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - HereOnThePrimalEdge - 04-13-2020
Pick your time frame, geography, and general or specific crime of interest and you can... simplify the complexity into sound-byte summaries
That where you’ll find the devil, in the details. The devil’s advocate too.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - ironyak - 04-13-2020
That where you’ll find the devil, in the details. The devil’s advocate too.
and a choir of angels in the architecture, and a band of demons in the pit, spinning into infinity, dancing on the crown of virus...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3YU_-zK14o
Anyone keeping count? You Can Call Me Al(quinas)...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_many_angels_can_dance_on_the_head_of_a_pin
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - ironyak - 04-17-2020
Lost track of where the IHME model used by the White House was last discussed, but here is some informed criticism of the model and its performance. Given the back and forth today between Cuomo and Trump, this might highlight some of the dangers of picking a bad crystal ball.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - kander - 04-17-2020
quote:
Originally posted by ironyak
Lost track of where the IHME model used by the White House was last discussed, but here is some informed criticism of the model and its performance. Given the back and forth today between Cuomo and Trump, this might highlight some of the dangers of picking a bad crystal ball.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/
Hard to get accurate data when so many deaths are being attributed to wuflu when there was an underlying morbidity. "man forgets parachute while skydiving, dies of covid-19. he was 32 years old" types of problems in the data.