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+--- Thread: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) (/showthread.php?tid=21469)
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RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - ironyak - 04-19-2020
TomK - Here's a tip - the actual answer, without Bayes, is 0.88.
Source where you stole this from? Show your own work? Or just ASSUME you are right?
"In God we trust. All others must bring data." W. Edwards Deming
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Edwards_Deming
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - TomK - 04-19-2020
Have fun posting tonight and all day tomorrow, ironyak. I gave a tip and have other things on my mind right now.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - ironyak - 04-19-2020
You so silly Tom. And so fragile. And petty. Maybe you should be more careful what doors you open?
https://youtu.be/xpAvcGcEc0k?t=50
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - Durian Fiend - 04-20-2020
quote:
Originally posted by TomK
Here's a tip - the actual answer, without Bayes, is 0.88.
.95X/(.9X+.05) Where X is percentage of population known to be positive, as a decimal. Not following how we get to .88 randomly yet.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - kander - 04-20-2020
quote:
Originally posted by Durian Fiend
If that were true nationwide then the approximate death rate to date from Covid19 would be more in line with estimates for the flu, correct?
This is what the study is indicating. granted it was only antibody testing on about 3500 people. but it indicates that a lot more people have been exposed and have antibodies to the virus. This would be great news and also mean that we could be over this quicker than we will see a vaccine for it.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - kalakoa - 04-20-2020
you need to know the fraction of the population that is infected before giving an actual answer
You need to test the population before you know what fraction is infected.
https://xkcd.com/2295/
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - Guest - 04-20-2020
You so silly Tom. And so fragile. And petty.
Yes, TomK is the quintessential Petty Tyrant. I don't know where the term first appeared, but I found Carlos' explanation to be spot on:
A petty tyrant is a person who causes distress by imposing his/her will on others using psychological pressure rather than physical force. The petty tyrant feels he may impose his will because he believes that he is a superior being and because he wants to operate from a position of authority.
Petty tyrants are the button-pushers, the individuals that have the ability to throw things off-balance for you if you let them. Many petty tyrants are unaware that they are the cause of so much frustration. They are effective teachers because they force the warrior to closely monitor their own reactions and habitual behaviors. The result is mindfulness and the ability to shift the assemblage point, even if ever so slightly, in order to loosen the fixation to the conditioned response that causes the reaction in the first place.
Though I now see that Wikipedia has a page for the term that credits other, more recent, than Carlos, I still find the reference in contact with Don's teachings to be more apropos to the situation we face with TomK.
Further reading...
https://www.suzannewagner.com/showcase/what-is-a-petty-tyrant-by-carlos-castaneda/
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - Guest - 04-20-2020
You need to test the population before you know what fraction is infected.
Testing? Are you still harping on testing? Shame on you.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - MarkP - 04-20-2020
"If that were true nationwide then the approximate death rate to date from Covid19 would be more in line with estimates for the flu, correct?"
The absolute death rate or the CFR? Initially it seemed that Covid-19 was twice as contagious (R0 of 2.5 vs 1.2) and 10 times as deadly (CFR of more than 1% vs .1%) as the flue. We are now realizing that lots more people are getting infected. With the observed number of deaths and the revised number of infections you work backwards to calculate the revised CFR. We may end up realizing it is 10 times as infectious and twice as deadly as the flue but we will be no better off. The hospitals are overwhelmed either way and this is demonstrably worse than the flue.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - kander - 04-20-2020
quote:Are they really? In NY the policies before Covid had many hospitals closed in the past decade and their current hospital situation was nearly maxed out and very few hospital beds available.
Originally posted by MarkP
The hospitals are overwhelmed either way and this is demonstrably worse than the flue.
The rest of the country seems to to be doing fine as far as capacity. In fact some hospitals are having to lay people off because business is slow especially in the ER sections.