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+--- Thread: Restrictions to continue! (/showthread.php?tid=22475)
RE: Restrictions to continue! - Durian Fiend - 11-28-2021
(11-28-2021, 08:19 AM)kander Wrote: last I heard it was 14.Apparently you haven't got out much recently. It's 10.
China requires 56 days for overseas travelers!
RE: Restrictions to continue! - kander - 11-28-2021
(11-28-2021, 03:34 PM)Durian Fiend Wrote:A friend of mine just got back from the mainland and told me it was 14 days she had to stay home. So my Apologies.(11-28-2021, 08:19 AM)kander Wrote: last I heard it was 14.Apparently you haven't got out much recently. It's 10.
China requires 56 days for overseas travelers!
RE: Restrictions to continue! - Wao nahele kane - 11-28-2021
(11-28-2021, 05:41 PM)kander Wrote:For unvaccinated, it's zero days if you have a negative test within 72 hours before traveling here. For vaccinated, no test or confinement upon arrival.(11-28-2021, 03:34 PM)Durian Fiend Wrote:A friend of mine just got back from the mainland and told me it was 14 days she had to stay home. So my Apologies.(11-28-2021, 08:19 AM)kander Wrote: last I heard it was 14.Apparently you haven't got out much recently. It's 10.
China requires 56 days for overseas travelers!
I've had several people here in the past month and those are the current rules. Is there an option to lockdown upon arrival? That I don't know but all that information can be found in the safe travels website.
(11-27-2021, 11:41 PM)HereOnThePrimalEdge Wrote: The other day I was chastised for posting on Punaweb about COVID without an advanced degree in virology. Just curious, what qualifications are required to predict the future or enthusiastically agree with prognostications about the future.If you have a hypothesis, then at minimum share some sort of evidence that may support it.
Then we as fellow armchair virologist can peer review it.
Sound fair?
The citation I used in response to your claim that it was an unvaccinated person observed these minimum standards.
The cited person used known parameters to form their supposition. Hypothesis and supposition may be used interchangeably.
They cited the unusual number of mutations being so quick and that is unusual, usually there's a single step change mutation unless it occured under abnormal circumstances, such as within an immunodeficient person.
We can also add to those potential unusual circumstance and suppose it occured in a lab if we want to list all the potential explanations for such an oddity.
When it comes to this vaccine, it not providing protection from aquiring and transmitting the virus, it also allowing for large viral loads to be manufactured within it's host and it also reducing it's hosts general immune system shortly after vaccination. There are more opportunities for this virus to mutate greatly within a vaccinated immunodeficient host than say a non-vaccinated immunodeficient host. Because that isn't a popular thing to point out, the individual avoided the vaccine status within their supposition.
RE: Restrictions to continue! - Wao nahele kane - 11-28-2021
So, if we observe a sudden unusual high number of mutations in a virus and we are left with supposition as to how it occured. We could start by listing the most likely explanations in order.
(1) Generated in a lab.
(2) Generated in a immunodeficient close human host group or possibly a single immunodeficient human host. (Is a vaccine involved?)
(3) skipping a large number of less likely explanations here but will conclude with very possibly the least likely of all explantions.
(4) Generated through a non-human carrier population, such as rats.
Using the above, one has a general road map of how to go about creating testing procedures to determine which of the above it was, if any at all.
RE: Restrictions to continue! - kander - 11-28-2021
(11-28-2021, 06:07 PM)Wao nahele kane Wrote:I find it extremely interesting to the fact that we know that vaccinated can and do still catch it, can still spread it. Why arent they being tested? quarantined. If it was just about peoples safety that would be required for vaccinated as well. I guess the carriers of the covid that are vaccinated are of little concern. Lol..(11-28-2021, 05:41 PM)kander Wrote:For unvaccinated, it's zero days if you have a negative test within 72 hours before traveling here. For vaccinated, no test or confinement upon arrival.(11-28-2021, 03:34 PM)Durian Fiend Wrote:(11-28-2021, 08:19 AM)kander Wrote: last I heard it was 14.
I've had several people here in the past month and those are the current rules. Is there an option to lockdown upon arrival? That I don't know but all that information can be found in the safe travels website.
RE: Restrictions to continue! - Wao nahele kane - 11-28-2021
And just for posterity, using Occam's razor, I'm playing it safe and leaning towards its creation being in a lab.
RE: Restrictions to continue! - HereOnThePrimalEdge - 11-28-2021
Because that isn't a popular thing to point out, the individual avoided the vaccine status within their supposition.
Really? A virologist, scientist, left out the part you wish he had included to dispute my comment, because it’s unpopular?
I'm playing it safe and leaning towards its creation being in a lab.
Kinda like what I was doing when I said odds are that an unvaccinated person likely created the mutation, right? Or is it more scientific, official sounding if you use the term Occam’s Razor?
Anyway, that leads me back to my unanswered question about the qualifications necessary for high quality predictions of the future, or findings in the future (creation... in a lab). Would it be a Crystal Ball with 4.5 or higher rating from Amazon? Ouija Board Certificaion?
RE: Restrictions to continue! - Wao nahele kane - 11-28-2021
(11-28-2021, 07:22 PM)kander Wrote:Exactly!(11-28-2021, 06:07 PM)Wao nahele kane Wrote:I find it extremely interesting to the fact that we know that vaccinated can and do still catch it, can still spread it. Why arent they being tested? quarantined. If it was just about peoples safety that would be required for vaccinated as well. I guess the carriers of the covid that are vaccinated are of little concern. Lol..(11-28-2021, 05:41 PM)kander Wrote:For unvaccinated, it's zero days if you have a negative test within 72 hours before traveling here. For vaccinated, no test or confinement upon arrival.(11-28-2021, 03:34 PM)Durian Fiend Wrote:(11-28-2021, 08:19 AM)kander Wrote: last I heard it was 14.
I've had several people here in the past month and those are the current rules. Is there an option to lockdown upon arrival? That I don't know but all that information can be found in the safe travels website.
In early July (just days before the recent spike struck us), Hawaii adopted new rules for entry to Hawaii.
Effectively the following...
- U.S. domestic travelers who were fully vaccinated in the United States or U.S. territories can bypass quarantine starting the 15th day after the completion of their vaccination.
- Bypass quarantine by taking a pre-travel test
- The test must be from a State of Hawaii trusted testing and travel partnerOpens external link to page that may not meet accessibility guidelines.
- The test must be administered no more than 72 hours prior to the scheduled departure time of the final leg to Hawaii.
- Test results must be received prior to flight departure.
- The test must be from a State of Hawaii trusted testing and travel partnerOpens external link to page that may not meet accessibility guidelines.
- Quarantine: choose not to take a COVID-19 test prior to departure and complete the mandatory 10-day self-quarantine.
It was July 8th that Hawaii bagan letting vaccinated people in without pre covid test. And on July 12th the recent covid infection spike began.
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(11-28-2021, 08:16 PM)HereOnThePrimalEdge Wrote: Because that isn't a popular thing to point out, the individual avoided the vaccine status within their supposition.The most likely way a virus aquires several mutates in a short time frame is when it happens in lab. Period. Occams razor is simply the most plausible explanation with respect to certainty. In other words, we can guarantee use of laboratory techniques to add many mutatation to a virus within days. We cannot guartee such an outcome if we slap the virus in immunodeficient hosts.
Really? A virologist, scientist, left out the part you wish he had included to dispute my comment, because it’s unpopular?
I'm playing it safe and leaning towards its creation being in a lab.
Kinda like what I was doing when I said odds are that an unvaccinated person likely created the mutation, right? Or is it more scientific, official sounding if you use the term Occam’s Razor?
Anyway, that leads me back to my unanswered question about the qualifications necessary for high quality predictions of the future, or findings in the future (creation... in a lab). Would it be a Crystal Ball with 4.5 or higher rating from Amazon? Ouija Board Certificaion?
It's that simple.
RE: Restrictions to continue! - HereOnThePrimalEdge - 11-28-2021
This means that the vaccinated may have very likely brought the most recent spike to Hawaii.
Based on what?
Hawaii DOH statistics which lists positive COVID cases and general info?
Clusters of COVID breakouts at the hotels, restaurants, and other places that vaccinated tourists gathered? Or were the clusters at that time in other locations like local church services, family gatherings, etc?
--------------------------------------
The most likely way a virus aquires several mutates in a short time frame
It's that simple
It is simple yes.
But although it's the most likely way it's not the only way, as I pointed out when I said the mutation might have come from an unvaccinated person:
"a new COVID variant has been discovered, possibly dangerous, more than likely incubated in an unvaccinated person." ...
"The odds. (It's possible it's from a vaccinated person, but far, far, far less likely.)"
I think we're both making a similar statement, based on the available information.
RE: Restrictions to continue! - Wao nahele kane - 11-28-2021
(11-28-2021, 08:48 PM)HereOnThePrimalEdge Wrote: This means that the vaccinated may have very likely brought the most recent spike to Hawaii.Based on the fact pre covid testing ceased for fully vaccinated people entering the state of Hawaii on July 8th 2021 and on July 12, 2021 the Hawaii covid infection spike began! SIMPLE to understand evidence!
Based on what?
Hawaii DOH statistics which lists positive COVID cases and general info?
Clusters of COVID breakouts at the hotels, restaurants, and other places that vaccinated tourists gathered? Or were the clusters at that time in other locations like local church services, family gatherings, etc?
[attachment=59]