+- Punaweb Forum (http://punaweb.org/forum)
+-- Forum: Punaweb Forums (http://punaweb.org/forum/forumdisplay.php?fid=3)
+--- Forum: Punatalk (http://punaweb.org/forum/forumdisplay.php?fid=10)
+--- Thread: 2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii." (/showthread.php?tid=23076)
RE: 2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii." - ChunksterK - 01-14-2024
" . . . dry for the next one, two or 3 weeks." Now that's what I call hedging your bet by "predicting" with a variance of three times from minimum to maximum duration. And only in Puna would three dry weeks be considered a drought.
RE: 2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii." - Durian Fiend - 01-14-2024
(01-14-2024, 02:34 AM)ChunksterK Wrote: " . . . dry for the next one, two or 3 weeks." Now that's what I call hedging your bet by "predicting" with a variance of three times from minimum to maximum duration. And only in Puna would three dry weeks be considered a drought.It's very difficult to forecast beyond about 10 days. Sometimes there is a strong signal for a change in weather within two weeks, in which case a forecaster could be a bit bolder! The take way for me was that there is a decent chance it will be relatively dry for the next three weeks.
3 weeks of dry-maybe more? There are a few other places I can think of where that would be considered unusually dry, either this time of year in particular or for another season.
RE: 2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii." - terracore - 03-09-2024
This is the worst. Drought. Ever.
RE: 2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii." - kalianna - 03-09-2024
Ha! I forgot about this. Yeah, itʻs so dry that our new catchment captured 6000 gallons of water in five days. And our visitors fled to the Kona side.
RE: 2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii." - terracore - 03-09-2024
Hey... good news on your new tank filling up though!
Honestly, I could use a short break from the precipitation. The extended forecast doesn't look promising.
RE: 2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii." - HereOnThePrimalEdge - 03-09-2024
From this thread a few pages back, posted in mid December:
forecasters expect it to continue for the next several months, with a 62% chance of lasting through April–June 2024
It appears we’re in the 38% chance of the dry weather not lasting until April.
RE: 2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii." - Durian Fiend - 03-09-2024
March is typically the second wettest month of the year for Hilo. The NOAA 90 day forecast will be updated in about a week.
In February they were sticking with the 60% chance of below normal precipitation through May.
RE: 2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii." - terracore - 03-10-2024
I think I'm to blame. If I hadn't had our leaking catchment tank liner replaced the drought would have continued.
I guess I'm looking at this with the "catchment tank half empty" point of view. If we never had the drought, I wouldn't have known about the leak until it got worse.
RE: 2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii." - terracore - 03-18-2024
Drought map:
![[Image: 432277570_7401894433190503_7909953591346...e=65FDB56B]](https://scontent.fhnl1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/432277570_7401894433190503_7909953591346508405_n.jpg?_nc_cat=110&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=5f2048&_nc_ohc=BBVfLDXX5r8AX_I5siZ&_nc_ht=scontent.fhnl1-1.fna&oh=00_AfDq7PF2f_3jZvI7zdXBaM_u9enwNnZYPMG6lfce733kFQ&oe=65FDB56B)
RE: 2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii." - AinaAKai - 03-21-2024
Why don't we start a 2024 hurricane thread instead of using this old busted thread?