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+--- Thread: 75% more deaths (/showthread.php?tid=17912)
RE: 75% more deaths - leilanidude - 12-20-2016
@HawaiiTed - Deaths that happen on private subdivision roads are not counted in the official stats. This means that accidents in HPP or the other big subdivisions don't count. It is a way of covering up the truth. "Nope, didn't happen on our safe roads."
RE: 75% more deaths - kimo wires - 12-20-2016
i'm curious to know the time of Day , or night, that most accidents happen.
I bet most of them are at night. When I hear of reports it seems that after 1am is when a lot of drunk driving accidents happen. I do my best to stay off the road at night.
Seems early morning is a prime accident time too. People groggy, impatient, and on the phone. Bad combo.
RE: 75% more deaths - sistersue - 12-20-2016
I think a lot of drivers don't realize that driving a car is like having a loaded gun in your hand. They take driving for granted and don't get serious until they're in an accident. By then it may be too late for them and anyone else on the road.
RE: 75% more deaths - kalakoa - 12-20-2016
accidents in HPP or the other big subdivisions don't count
...but HPD can still write traffic tickets, because those "privately owned" roads are still "open to the public".
Note also that HVNP and other "Federal enclaves" are similarly "not part of County", so traffic fatalities therein are also not part of the "official" total.
I seem to recall one case where the accident started on a public road, but since the dead body landed on a private road, that fatality was not counted.
RE: 75% more deaths - TomK - 12-20-2016
"Tom, where did you get those stats? I'm having difficulty finding them."
http://www.hawaiipolice.com/news/media-release-archives
Each January they give the numbers for the previous two years in one of the DUI stats press releases. For 2015 and 2016 I simply used the numbers you provided (and of course, 2016 isn't quite over yet).
RE: 75% more deaths - TomK - 12-20-2016
I added the numbers for 1999 to 2004:
Year Fatalities
1999 31
2000 38
2001 31
2002 28
2003 35
2004 41
2005 36
2006 33
2007 37
2008 27
2009 22
2010 27
2011 23
2012 38
2013 25
2014 11
2015 17
2016 30
The additional numbers raise the average to 29 per year with an unchanged standard deviation of 8. There is a downwards trend over the years, but the scatter is still very high so I'd be very hesitant to claim any real correlation based on these numbers. What would be good to have is the Big Island population values for those years. If nothing else, if someone could provide the census data for the population in 2000 and 2010 then I could make an assumption of an annual increase (which I know won't be accurate, but nothing else I can do) and see what that looks like.
RE: 75% more deaths - alaskyn66 - 12-20-2016
Population of Hawaii county in 2000 was 148,677
In 2010 it was 185,079
RE: 75% more deaths - TomK - 12-20-2016
Thanks, Alaskyn!
Using those numbers and the assumption of a linear growth in the population, you get this:
Year Fatalities (% of population)
1999 0.021
2000 0.026
2001 0.020
2002 0.018
2003 0.022
2004 0.025
2005 0.022
2006 0.019
2007 0.021
2008 0.015
2009 0.012
2010 0.015
2011 0.012
2012 0.020
2013 0.013
2014 0.005
2015 0.008
2016 0.014
The trend is downwards in this case (average % of fatalities per total pop. is 0.017, standard deviation is 0.006), so presenting things this way shows you're less likely to die on the roads than a decade ago. Whether this is really true or not and what might be the reason is obviously up for debate. There could be several reasons including misleading fatality reports, newer safer cars, slower traffic etc.
RE: 75% more deaths - ironyak - 12-20-2016
So increased population leads to more traffic, which moves slower, leading to fewer deaths. Puna should be able to look forward to an increasingly safer future of driving then. This is why Ige stopped new road construction no doubt.
Hawaii Government - Doing nothing, to show we care.
RE: 75% more deaths - TomK - 12-20-2016
"So increased population leads to more traffic, which moves slower, leading to fewer deaths. Puna should be able to look forward to an increasingly safer future of driving then. This is why Ige stopped new road construction no doubt."
You made that conclusion, ironyak, not I, just so we're clear.