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+--- Thread: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) (/showthread.php?tid=21469)
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RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - 1voyager1 - 02-18-2020
At the expense of repeating myself, quoting from my 1st post in this thread on pg 17:
" ... From this, most of the infected people are still in the throes of their infection that has not yet been resolved.
Infections have been growing recently from 2k to 4k per day.
They cannot be included in calculating the mortality rate yet.
This particular disease has not run long enough to be able to figure in the total cases and still be reasonably accurate about its effect. ... "
Any estimate of the death rate that is in the low 1 digits or less is based on Total Confirmed Cases.
It would have to be.
At the time of my last post there were still ~59k cases that were unresolved.
Only 14,579 resolved cases are countable in figuring the death rate.
They can't be used to calculate a death rate until they are over it, dead or alive.
You cannot use victims whose disposition has yet to be determined in the final mortality rate.
The mortality rate has been dropping, and hopefully will continue to do so.
There are no mortality rates that can yet be valid.
The outbreak is too new.
There are no usable historical figures, and won't be for quite q while yet.
The only true mortality rate is what has actually happened so far.
If you use Total Confirmed Cases in the calculation, that number assumes all the unresolved cases survive as it counting them as recovered even though they are not.
The low inaccurate numbers are "spin doctor" numbers.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - 1voyager1 - 02-18-2020
Addendum:
Just took a look at the JHU map page.
The US Confirmed Cases jumped up from 15 yesterday to 29 so far today.
Yeah, no need to worry, we're safe.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - ironyak - 02-18-2020
1voyager1 - The US Confirmed Cases jumped up from 15 yesterday to 29 so far today.
Those 14 are from the passengers transported from the Diamond Princess cruise liner in Japan. They learned of their positive test results in the process of leaving and so were brought back to the U.S. instead of remaining in Japan. They are now in the special containment hospital in Omaha.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/483527-evacuated-americans-head-to-omaha-for-treatment
Point being, this isn't evidence for community transmission in the states (yet). Japan, South Korea, & Singapore are the canaries in the coal mines currently.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/19/national/diamond-princess-coronavirus/
Good thing Hawaii doesn't have any flights to and from those locations!
https://www.google.com/flights?lite=0#flt=KOA./m/06t2t.2020-03-06*/m/06t2t.KOA.2020-03-10;c:USD;e:1;sd:1;t:f
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - reni - 02-18-2020
The Diamond Princess,
What went wrong on this ship? How did the virus continue to spread?
It must have been shear hel** to be trapped onboard and yet,I don't understand this....(per Bloomberg)
"Japanese health authorities are beginning the process of offloading the remaining 2,000+ passengers and crew aboard the 'Diamond Princess', a ship that has been under quarantine for 14 days.The offloading will take place in phases over three days, finally wrapping up on Friday"
If the Japanese Health officials were experiencing previously tested people on this ship , now testing positive just THIS Monday, how can we be assured that new cases will not pop up from the rest of the passengers currently being offloaded?
Some Doctors are suggesting the incubation period for this virus can be up to 24 days. So, will these 2,000+ people be assumed not to be carrying the virus and be free to board the commercial airline of their choice?
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - Punatic007 - 02-18-2020
reni, I kept wondering how the air was circulated in the the passenger quarters on the Diamond Princess in quarantine.
It's admirable for those who have been calculating the stats on this virus but as Ironyak has said the canary in the mine is Japan, Singapore and South Korea. Now we can work with the numbers because China's current government simply cannot be trusted to have revealed the correct numbers and data.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - HereOnThePrimalEdge - 02-19-2020
This thread has a lot of good info...
https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f6c85n/what_is_going_on_now_at_the_cdc_level_in_the/
Thanks ironyak, that's an excellent link, Well worth reading, even many of the comments.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - ironyak - 02-19-2020
reni - So, will these 2,000+ people be assumed not to be carrying the virus and be free to board the commercial airline of their choice?
Have to test negative to leave the ship, then are encouraged to self-quarantine if staying in Japan. Other countries, like the U.S., may restrict your ability to return, or require quarantine when you do, for an additional two weeks.
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/02/19/breaking-news/passengers-depart-docked-ship-after-virus-quarantine-ends/
Japan is likely going to be the next major outbreak given their lax approach. With the Tokyo Summer Olympics coming up they have a strong motivation to downplay this as much as possible.
Many see indications that we're past containment and the focus is moving towards mitigation. This thread has a lot of good info on what is going on behind the scenes in the U.S. to prepare.
https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f6c85n/what_is_going_on_now_at_the_cdc_level_in_the/
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - islandlvng - 02-19-2020
760 million in quarantine. Largest in history.
Washington st on lookout now. 746 being monitored.
https://komonews.com/news/local/officials-746-people-in-washington-being-supervised-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak
https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/health/man-monitored-for-coronavirus-symptoms-is-free-to-leave-buffalo/71-3a6dca6a-933d-4818-81e6-f4afa3c37be2
Kevin Qiu was released from custody Friday afternoon. He has warrants out of Pennsylvania, but prosecutors there decided they didn't want him.
"Normally, we can wait a couple of days for the hearing, and the person will sit in the holding center, so the fact that the sheriff, sheriff's office called us first thing this morning at 8:30 and said, 'Hey, can we do the hearing right away?' that's very unusual," Erie County District Attorney John Flynn said
Japan getting hit with many more to come. What a s#*t show over in Japan.
Stuck in the middle. Wonder why we are so clean? Wonder why the media isn’t headlining what’s going on in the states? Thought how the state handled the volcano was bad, this is gonna be a doozy (IF) it takes off here.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - islandlvng - 02-19-2020
I’ve been hearing discussion of the virus not liking high temperatures or humidity because of how other viruses respond to it. I heard it again today on the news.
Then comes Singapore.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/14/coronavirus-singapore-must-prepare-for-cases-to-rise-minister-says.html
I decided to look up temps around China. Watch the temperatures in Singapore. February is a very hot month. Singapore has high humidity. You won’t hear anyone speak on that but they keep talking about how viruses don’t like high temps.
It’s right there for everyone to see. If it takes off in Singapore, it will thrive just fine here. Not your average virus I guess.
And to think it all came from one person in a wet market.
But not to worry, our local big pharma friend ironyak will have us covered with the proper info and pills to pop for this bat virus.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - 1voyager1 - 02-19-2020
quote:
Originally posted by ironyak
1voyager1 - The US Confirmed Cases jumped up from 15 yesterday to 29 so far today.
Those 14 are from the passengers transported from the Diamond Princess cruise liner in Japan. They learned of their positive test results in the process of leaving and so were brought back to the U.S. instead of remaining in Japan. They are now in the special containment hospital in Omaha.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/483527-evacuated-americans-head-to-omaha-for-treatment
Point being, this isn't evidence for community transmission in the states (yet). Japan, South Korea, & Singapore are the canaries in the coal mines currently.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/19/national/diamond-princess-coronavirus/
...
I saw earlier today the US numbers had dropped back to 15 again.
I did assume the American numbers on the cruise ship in Japan had mistakenly been added to the US's total.
No, the only thing shown by this is that even those most likely to have knowledge of what is happening are still pretty much stumbling around in the dark and making mistaken pronouncements.
You really need to question all information given out and wait for confirmation several times in the future before accepting it as truth.
This is too new, too many, and too overwhelming with the chain of knowledge too tenuous for any one to have a secure handle on what is actually happening.
Be assured, your sources and knowledge from them will reflect that.