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+--- Thread: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) (/showthread.php?tid=21469)
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RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - Guest - 03-01-2020
Here's an interesting headline:
Coronavirus may have spread undetected in US for weeks
From: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/public-global-health/485389-coronavirus-may-have-spread-undetected-in-us-for-weeks
Which in part reads:
Researchers determined that the genomes of two coronavirus infections in Washington state show the virus could have spread in the state for almost six weeks. The two infections in Snohomish County shared a rare genetic variation, indicating they likely were related, the Times reported.
The infections concerned the first confirmed case in the U.S. on Jan. 20, which involved a man in his 30s, and another, involving a teenager, that was confirmed on Friday.
This means the virus likely was spreading in between, Trevor Bedford, an associated professor at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, said, according to the Times.
Bedford said it's possible the two cases are unrelated but that it's unlikely, as only two out of 59 sample sequences from China had the genetic variation found in both cases. More than 125 genomes from samples around the world have been analyzed by the scientists...
The complete article at link above.
I say interesting because, for me, it raises all sorts of questions about what is really happening in Hawaii? Has this virus made land fall and already gone around the islands? If so then it either has a much longer incubation period, in which case the 2 week quarantine plan is bogus, or it is far less dangerous in that all sorts of folks here have it and aren't having the severe reaction we're lead to expect.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - ironyak - 03-01-2020
kander - Were looking at a death rate slightly higher than SARS of those who become infected ... Sometimes the truth slips out. An interview done with a Dr in Wuhan leaked a key bit of information.
So he says exactly: "For patients with severe symptoms the mortality is even higher than Sars" This is known of course for patients with severe symptoms, e.g. the death rate or CFR was estimated at 8% -15% for the elderly in overrun Hubei province. That does not mean the overall CFR is greater than SARS at 10%. If we ignore the nutty China data the CFR is closer to 1-2% although there are of course fewer resolved cases. Regardless what the average CFR is, the percentage of severe cases alone requiring hospitalization and/or intensive care is FAR more than our health care system can handle.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762510
terracore - I'm not qualified to post a prediction.
Sorry if I made it sound that way - I was just saying that I wasn't arguing with you in regards to much of what you've been saying (risk of reinfection, lack of ventilators, possible economic effects, etc). All serious and well-documented factors to consider.
Panic: The Untold Story of the 2008 Financial Crisis
Thanks for this! (don't know how I missed it before). That's a heavy shot of high-grade flashback of the daily insanity and how a handful of government individuals made choices that affected millions of people and trillions of dollars. At least they seemed to care about finding a solution compared to those running the show now?
Coronavirus may have spread undetected in US for weeks
Note though that the total number of related cases is probably in the hundreds and with it being flu season these may not have stood out. 100+ people die of the flu each day in the U.S. - probably hard to identify a handful of flu-like cases that may have been more severe than usual.
tl;dr - looks bad, soon to get worse, have money, don't get sick
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - kander - 03-01-2020
Well that is the crux of the figures. A lot of people may never even know they have it and therefore its nearly impossible to calculate low morbidity. If you require hospitalization your in the severe cases. your going to be tested. And if you have it quarantined.
Your also counted in the infected column. Until you either die or get better your being accounted for.
I think the only thing we disagree on is what constitutes "severe cases"?
And my goodness, it seems like a lot of people are stuck in that "infected" column for a long time.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - ironyak - 03-02-2020
I've read that severe cases are roughly defined as requiring medical care such as supplemental oxygen. Critical cases require intensive medical care such as intubation. The 80% of mild to moderate cases can still be a nasty bit of business including pneumonia though.
(I haven't seen the "severe case" requirements officially spelled out though as all the related studies point back to the "Infectious Diseases Society of America/American Thoracic Society Consensus Guidelines on the Management of Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Adults") Anyone familiar with CURB-65 or PSI scoring?
Civil Beat has a good run-down on local hospital preparations so at least they are making plans as best they can.
https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/03/how-prepared-are-hawaii-hospitals-for-coronavirus/
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - islandlvng - 03-02-2020
Wow. I’m surprised youtube still has this video up. Not good. I knew this was the case but hearing the concern in this ER doctors voice and what he is saying just blows my mind. 2020 and here we are. I can’t imagine how this will play out here in Hawaii. Good luck everyone. I really mean it.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wg_OTTzUv8
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - Guest - 03-02-2020
Considering that an informed electorate is better equipped to make important life impacting decisions it's interesting to note that the CDC website has stopped reporting the number of COVID-19 virus tests..
From: https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/this-is-the-coverup-cdc-website-stops-reporting-number-of-covid-19-virus-tests/
Which in part reads:
The Center for Disease Control (CDC) is no longer sharing vital statistics about the coronavirus on its website after a new death was confirmed this week.
Judd Legum first reported that the CDC had removed the number of tests that have been given for COVID-19 from its website.
“The lack of testing is a scandal,” Legum wrote. “This is the coverup.”
The entire article is at the link above.
Does this matter? Is being informed important? Or, perhaps, as the current administration appears to believe, it's best not to know?
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - kalakoa - 03-02-2020
Does this matter?
No.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - HereOnThePrimalEdge - 03-02-2020
Is being informed important?
The general public can probably wash their hands regularly without referring to the web for a body count. The big issue is that information always accessible for doctors is also embargoed, or blocked, or withheld, or whatever you want to call it. That’s never happened with previous outbreaks of this nature.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - terracore - 03-02-2020
quote:
Originally posted by islandlvng
Wow. I’m surprised youtube still has this video up. Not good. I knew this was the case but hearing the concern in this ER doctors voice and what he is saying just blows my mind. 2020 and here we are. I can’t imagine how this will play out here in Hawaii. Good luck everyone. I really mean it.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wg_OTTzUv8
That's a good video, thanks for posting. I know that doctor has been quoted in many of the articles I've read.
RE: Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here) - terracore - 03-02-2020
"Q Mr. President, have you been any plans that would involve quarantined cities, like we saw in China? And what would have to happen for you to take a step like that?
THE PRESIDENT: We do have plans of a much — on a much larger scale, should we need that. We’re working with states, we’re working with virtually every state. And we do have plans on a larger scale if we need it. We don’t think we’re going to need it, but, you know, you always have to be prepared."
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-conference/
ETA: bolding text/drama; Not sure how the USA could do a "much larger scale" considering China's lockdown on movement is larger than the population of the USA.