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+--- Thread: Close call with Tropical Storm Nalia (/showthread.php?tid=16445)
Close call with Tropical Storm Nalia - Ino - 09-24-2015
Short lived Tropical Storm Nalia will pass South of the Big Island this weekend. In a sign of a changing atmosphere, one of our first cold upper level parcels of air from the North Pacific will move over the Big Island at the same time with lowering Freezing Levels. This will lead to downpours and even Thunderstorms.
Look for a flooding situation and intense weather, especially on Sunday as the Vortex Max. passes just South of us. Unfortunately the shear will also slow the speed of the storm's passing leading to prolonged heavy rains.
Not a good place to be the North side of a cyclone but we will be saved once again by the subtropical jet which will shear the cyclone apart with a SW wind . With a strong High North of us moving South look for high trade winds and steering winds will keep the cyclone South.
During last Sunday's downpours the Freezing Level at Hilo fell all the way to 13,500'. Currently it's way back up to 17,000', We are truly lucky that the MJO does not move the other way. It is currently SE of us moving from West to East. If it went the other way East to West cyclones could intensify rapidly and hit us hard.
Enjoy these rains because by about the middle/late Oct. we will be starting to go on a long pronounced dry spell-Our Winter 2016! Normally our wet season is Winter but if you remember last Winter, conditions have only intensified so look for a warm, relatively dry Winter one more time with high wind episodes due to frontal passages. No worries for too long a drought as the Spring of 2016 looks wet.
This is a link to monitor the various tropical waves that are always moving by;
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showhoriz.php
RE: Close call with Tropical Storm Nalia - PunaMauka2 - 09-24-2015
Thanks, Ino.
RE: Close call with Tropical Storm Nalia - PaulW - 09-25-2015
Thanks!
RE: Close call with Tropical Storm Nalia - allensylves - 09-25-2015
An article about El Nino in today's Trib predicts a wetter Oct. & Nov. with the hurricane season possibly running longer and then drier starting in Jan.
Allen
Finally in HPP
RE: Close call with Tropical Storm Nalia - jackson - 09-25-2015
why does the storm appear to be moving North on the radar??? I haven't seen weather forecasts here to be too accurate past about a two hour window.
RE: Close call with Tropical Storm Nalia - pahoated - 09-25-2015
The outer feeder bands will be clipping the south end of the island, how far up remains to be seen. Flash flood warning starts Friday evening. Looks like it might block viewing of the super red Moon.
"Aloha also means goodbye. Aloha!"
RE: Close call with Tropical Storm Nalia - Kiana - 09-25-2015
Thanks so much, Ino. I always look forward to and appreciate your posts.
RE: Close call with Tropical Storm Nalia - msrocket - 09-25-2015
Ditto Kiana.
RE: Close call with Tropical Storm Nalia - PunaMauka2 - 09-25-2015
Doesn't sound like any dramatic change in the forecast from yesterday.
Latest 5-day track from the National Weather Service: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Niala
"FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 15.1N 150.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 15.9N 151.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 16.7N 152.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 17.0N 153.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 17.0N 155.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 17.0N 157.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 17.0N 158.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 16.5N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH"
Discussion: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/archive/2015/TCDCP1.CP062015.003.201509251448
Wind Speed Probabilities: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/display_probwinds.php?stormid=CP062015&latest=y#prob34
RE: Close call with Tropical Storm Nalia - Guest - 09-25-2015
Mahalo Ino, great post.
Here in leilani, some rain has already started to fall. Anyone care to make a prediction or guess to how much rain this system (Niala) may bring us here in puna, say over the next week? Unfortunately Our land is saturated from last weeks 12+ inches, enough to have flooded out the summer garden beds.
This couple in kona really doesn't need anymore flooding, they have had enough. wonder what kind of development took place above their home to cause the diversion of water to roll through their house?
http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2015/09/18/video-kona-home-flooded-twice-in-two-weeks/