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+--- Thread: Drier air headed for the Big Island (/showthread.php?tid=17759)
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Drier air headed for the Big Island - Ino - 10-31-2016
Aloha I was asked by a couple of PWers not to post wx info here but I think there are others who might enjoy some of the following.
I ask that if you don't like the post- I know it's long- Please simply do not read it-Mahalo
Drier conditions look to develop over the Big Island by Weds- earlier for Northern Islands.
Oct. is the first month of our “ wet season” (Oct. to Apr.) on the East side. This year’s dry season (May thru Sept..) precipitation was second in rainfall totals only to the previous record (last 30 years) year of 2015. Location of drier air can be monitored here- there is quite a bit of dry air to the North and this looks to start to move over us by Weds.;
http://tinyurl.com/zurlmgd
As the High flattens to more of a West to East position this will prevent cold fronts or what’s left of them from reaching us. Instead of ridges and troughs this new configuration will be like a belt and in this set-up any cold fronts or remnants will be prevented from reaching us (they’ll dissipate in the centers of the Highs)–at least for a little while. The new configuration shows up nicely here;
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_precip
The exact position and shape of the mid Pac High is key. Lately it has been located N/NW of us allowing cold fronts to flow down the Eastern flank of the High to reach us. The High has also been amplified or shaped in a North to South configuration with breaks in between.
This looks to change as the High begins to move East and we’ll be more under the center of these Highs. Under the center of this deep layered High, air is subsiding and the atmosphere has low inversions. If you want warm, dry conditions this is where you want to be. It won’t stay in this position forever however and hopefully for the West Coast’s wet season- it does move back to the N/NW of us to allow cold air pockets (storms) to move into the Eastern Pacific.
We have one more trough to deal with and then starting Weds. thru the weekend we should be much drier. Late this weekend or early next week a pool of tropical moisture will be moving from West to East but models are conflicted if this moisture will hit us or pass South of us.
I really like this graph and it verifies well but it does change so you need to check it often- click on precipitation- then follow the dates;
https://www.google.com/#q=hilo+hi+weather+forecast
We have a chance for a “dry wet season” as SSTs ( Sea Surface Temperature) have cooled from 3-5 degrees above average last year to 1-3 degrees F earlier this year to now the SSTs are below Average;
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
Below average SSTs mean that they will be less water vapor available and although I’m sure we’ll see rain the amounts will be much reduced. IMO we have a better chance of a dry wet season than a wet one- we’ll see. For weekly long range outlook;
http://tinyurl.com/j2mouec
For monthly outlook upper Right.
Amazing wx events continue to unfold across the Arctic. Cat. 4 Hurricane Seymour and lots of warm air before it has produced a record amount of heat entering the Artic from the Eastern Pacific. It’s too bad that Seymour wiped out the cold air pocket and this prevented Southern Calif. from getting heavier rain. The Blob has also played a big part of this;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blob_(Pacific_Ocean)
All this warm air flowing North has resulted in a Polar Vortex (PV) split;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex
The first one ever recorded for this time of year and this shows up well here;
http://wxmaps.org/pix/NHanim.html
When the Polar Vortex splits this can cause cold air lobes to wobble and to spill out of the Arctic region into the mid latitudes or even to latitudes below that. When the PV is weak and splintered Watch out below as someone’s going to get hit by an extreme cold event. This looks likely to happen the second half of Nov. We could get approached by some very cold air and the Eastern US looks vulnerable.
I apologize that this is so long- I find it difficult to explain so much in a short post.
Happy Halloween Everybody!
RE: Drier air headed for the Big Island - knieft - 10-31-2016
I love your weather posts! Thanks.
Cheers,
Kirt
RE: Drier air headed for the Big Island - Chunkster - 10-31-2016
Thanks for posting this and for educating me. Please continue!
RE: Drier air headed for the Big Island - HereOnThePrimalEdge - 10-31-2016
Yes, thanks Ino.
I enjoy your weather posts as well.
I saw the tracks immediately - they swirled back & forth across the shuffled sand of the path. They seemed the design of indecision, but I am not sure. Mary Oliver
RE: Drier air headed for the Big Island - macuu222 - 10-31-2016
Thanks...I've been waiting for some dry weather to cut the lawn.
RE: Drier air headed for the Big Island - Kapoho Joe - 10-31-2016
I appreciate your weather posts Ino, keep it up!
RE: Drier air headed for the Big Island - eigoya - 10-31-2016
Super interesting. I am fed up w rain myself,and I know the North .Slope of Alaska has gone from freezing to rain over the last few days. Dangerous.
RE: Drier air headed for the Big Island - TomK - 10-31-2016
Ino,
I don't know who asked you to stop posting weather information here, but I find your weather posts fascinating and very informative, plus I always learn something from them. Thank you for yet another interesting post.
RE: Drier air headed for the Big Island - msrocket - 11-01-2016
Thanks for your interesting and informative post!
RE: Drier air headed for the Big Island - PrismaticMenehune - 11-01-2016
NOAA released their wet season outlook.
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/hydro/pages/MediaAdvisory-2016-17HawaiiWetSeasonOutlook.pdf.
Summary: near to above average rainfall most probable.