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+--- Thread: Hurricane Fernanda... Potentially large storm (/showthread.php?tid=18579)
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Hurricane Fernanda... Potentially large storm - Carey - 07-13-2017
Still probably a week away from the time to worry, but am posting, as now is the time to prep... & am posting 2 past PW posts with a lot of shared prep ideas...
NOAA Trop Pacific imaging:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/tpac.html
Central Pacific Hurricane Center:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/
Past links for preparation ideas:
http://www.punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=19091
http://www.punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=22285
RE: Hurricane Fernanda... Potentially large storm - The_Saints - 07-14-2017
Carey, a good reminder; thank you.
Much can change in 10 days. However, the models are rarely show this tight of a consensus, especially beyond 120 hours.
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ep062017_late.png
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ep062017_late_inten.png
RE: Hurricane Fernanda... Potentially large storm - Guest - 07-14-2017
Better to be safe than sorry when it comes to large storms that approach our island. The east and south shores of the big island could get some very large waves and surge from this Hurricane even if they dodge the wind and rain. Remember a tropical storm left many without power for weeks just a couple years ago.
RE: Hurricane Fernanda... Potentially large storm - HereOnThePrimalEdge - 07-14-2017
Fernanda is a Cat 4 storm right now, and still quite a distance from Hawaii.
Here's another spaghetti model link to add to the one already posted by The_Saints (above). For the moment, most project the storm to weaken and pass south the islands:
http://www.cyclocane.com/spaghetti-models/
Four people are in a room and seven leave. How many have to enter again before it's empty?
RE: Hurricane Fernanda... Potentially large storm - Petard - 07-14-2017
I wouldn't get too worked up about this particular storm. There might be extra rain and high surf in the forecast from a close approach, and a small chance of landfall. But we are entering about a six-week period that is the heart of tropical cyclone season here in the islands. So we should all be ready already.
RE: Hurricane Fernanda... Potentially large storm - Mimosa - 07-14-2017
A fave link of ours .
https://www.windy.com/?15.856,-142.998,5
Mrs.Mimmosa
RE: Hurricane Fernanda... Potentially large storm - terracore - 07-15-2017
Fernanda is forecast to peter out before it gets here, not that it means we are free to not worry. There are two storms forming behind it.
RE: Hurricane Fernanda... Potentially large storm - HereOnThePrimalEdge - 07-15-2017
Spaghetti models have shifted to the north as of Saturday AM, with averages of multiple models now showing its direction more directly toward the island chain, perhaps slightly north of the Big Island.
For models with projections showing Fernanda (or remnants?) as it approaches Hawaii, the wind forecast ranges between 20-40 mph.
Four people are in a room and seven leave. How many have to enter again before it's empty?
RE: Hurricane Fernanda... Potentially large storm - DTisme - 07-15-2017
That windy site is pretty cool, Mrs. Mimosa!
RE: Hurricane Fernanda... Potentially large storm - Carey - 07-15-2017
As hopefully we are alone in the "prep just in case & have a cleaned up yard & such#699; mode, I#699;m not sure which forecast has the hurricane petering out... if you are looking at the 5-day storm forecast, it still has a storm coming, but not here in 5 days
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?cone#contents
If you look at the long-term models, most of the storm tracks for Fernanda either continue, as a storm through the islands, or veer north & continue north just east of the islands, as of tonight:
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ep062017_late.png
either way, still cyclonic storm - maybe not a hurricanes, but after Iselle hit, many in Puna now respect the power of a "petered out" hurricane that hits as "only" a tropical storm....
Still should plan to prep for that type of petered out storm!