More Tropical Weather heading our way

[alaskyn66]

Iselle slows down to 8 mph. westerly while Julio cruises at 16 mph.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac#ISELLE

When in Rome.. Do as the Romans do....

[steve1]

Thanks for the information Carey. It sounds like the Fujiwhara Effect is relatively rare but if the two centers get within 900 miles of each other and are the same relative size and intensity then th two vortexes can do a dance around each other. Yikes! that could make landfall very difficult to predict. I can't figure out how far apart the centers are though because the only information I can readily find describes Iselle's distance relative to Hilo but Julio is currently being handled by the Florida tracking station so they describe it's position relative to Baja, Mexico. Either way I suppose we will get whatever nature serves to us without any recourse. Incidentally, I tried the link above and it didn't work- was missing a digit. This link should work:
http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/how-...o-us-15174

And Opihikao your mind is pretty clear and Iwa was in 1982. (I checked on my mobile app called "Hurricane" by a woman who calls her company Kitty Code LLC if you use an iphone, ipad, or ipod. It cost a couple dollars if I recall but seems to have the best matrix of information including tracking Pacific hurricanes trajectories and speeds back till 1949 and Atlantic storms back till 1851.

[TomK]

Steve1,

"Looking at the water vapor map that Carrie posted it appears that Julio is advancing on Iselle, and I was wondering what the possibility is of Julio catching up and the two storms uniting as one. Would that then create a superstorm? Anyone have any ideas, and I prefer scientific observations and facts over anecdotal evidence or a faith based belief system."

I think that is a fascinating question, but my uneducated guess is that they won't merge, the reason being that they are following almost identical tracks and will have similar influences on their westward movement, and being so close together, those influences won't change very much.

Following on from that, if they did merge, then my first thought is that they would disrupt each other. Because they are both rotating in the same direction, the western most part of Julio would first interact with the eastern part of Iselle. That would mean Julio's winds would be in the complete opposite direction to Iselle's (Julio's winds would be from the north, Iselle's from the south). My guess, and it is just that, is that it would disrupt both systems. However, you are also combining a lot of heat energy in a relatively small place, hence my hedging.

It's a very interesting question. I think it's hypothetical and won't happen and I'm not aware of two tropical systems ever merging. Having said that, if you are interested, I do know one or two research meteorologists in Hawaii who might be able to provide an answer, although I have to say I suspect they are rather busy right now.

Let me know if you want me to drop them a line.

[Stizz]

well as of 8:00PDT, the coordinates were 1031 land miles apart, but intensities way different. Hopefully it will just be interesting, not devastating.

http://boulter.com/gps/distance/?from=16.0%B0N+138.0%B0W&to=13.5%B0N+122.8%B0W&units=m

[TomK]

Oh, and I posted that before I read Carey's post. Sorry about that, Cary and Steve1. I'll do a little more research and thanks, Carey, for that link. However, I still don't think they will merge.

[Carey]

KITV just reported that Iselle is forming in an annular form. Only 4% of all hurricanes have this form & none seem to have ever headed to Hawaii.

Annular hurricanes have less spiral bands, larger eye and are less effected by frontal wind shear... if the storm track continues in this form continues, this could mean higher impact on our Island.

[TomK]

Carey, Kander - any links to this new information and to the research behind it? I'm particularly interested in the claim that "Annular eh? hmm. that means if it peaks today by the time it gets here it will still be category 2."

Thanks.

[kander]

quote:

---

Originally posted by kander

Annular eh? hmm. that means if it peaks today by the time it gets here it will still be category 2. Thats a game changer on its current course.

Annular hurricanes http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_tropical_cyclone

It basically means it only gets .5 T scale less per 24 hours from its peak. They maintain their strength better than "normal" hurricanes.

latest discussion is here
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIA...0855.shtml

---

[TomK]

Well, thanks for that, kander, much appreciated, but I still see nothing in those links that says it will be a category 2 hurricane when it gets here.

[kander]

No there are no links. I used if, and hypothesized with known parameters of .5 Tscale reduction every 24 hours. Since it was classified as a category 4 storm today, and if that was its peak, then every 24 hours the T scale would reduce by .5
Today, Monday Cat 4
Tuesday Cat 4 minus .5 = 3.5 or a 3B hurricane
Wednesday Cat 3B minus .5 = Cat 3
Thursday Cat 3 minus .5 = Cat 2B

Nope Im not a meteorologist but I did stay at a Holiday Inn one time so that should qualify.