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NEW UPDATE FROM HVO:
REPORTS CONTINUOUS LOW MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY IN LOWER PUNA WHICH INCLUDES LEILANI, NANAWALE AND KAPOHO. HVO INDICATES AN ERUPTION IS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHERE AN ERUPTION COULD OCCUR, THE AREAS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED ARE NANAWALE AND LEILANI TO KAPOHO.
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Stay safe everyone!
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i don't think the wet weather angle is far fetched at all. i thought scientist said the snow load on mt. saint helens had something to do with that eruption. we have certainly had enough rain this year... guess we are gonna see..
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The West Coast's volcanoes are andesitic.
They are prone to explosive eruptions, giving ash falls.
Hawaii's are a different type, prone to large lava flows.
But, there have been some events that have produced ash.
My guess is that it was on a much smaller scale than the West Coast events I've seen.
I was down in Yelm [near Olympia] when St. Helens blew.
The resulting ash cloud was over 30° above the horizon and a darker grey in color than the water clouds.
It was obvious what it was.
M'Lady and I were sitting in an Anchorage restaurant when the ash fall from Mt. Spur started.
We watched it through the window for quite a while.
Then, we drove home through it.
It was like a heavy snow fall.
Nothing on the scale of St. Helens' ash fall.
It only left about 1/4" to 1/2" on the ground.
An ash fall is highly unlikely here.
But, you might have to outrun a lava flow.
Fountains are a good possibility, like what happened in Kapoho back in the '60s.
Someone posted pics of cracks showing up in Kahukai's pavement here in Leilani.
I never took the Pahoa flow seriously, other than the possibility of being cut off from town.
So far, this one has me considering what I might need to do for a possible evacuation.
Risk keeps life interesting.
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Was a Democrat until gun control became a knee jerk, then a Republican until the crazies took over, back to being a nonpartisan again.
This time, I can no longer participate in the primary.
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"Hawaii's are a different type, prone to large lava flows.
But, there have been some events that have produced ash."
Anyone remember "Pele's Hair"?
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Kilauea has produced some mighty impressive volcanic eruptions & the take-home I have gotten from attending many USGS talks is:
For the last 200+ years we have been in a fairly un-eventful phase & that Kilauea swings from very "eventful" phases to less "eventful "phases...
What are these more "eventful" phases like, you may ask?
Every few centuries, Kilauea has pyroclastic eruption events that can fling ash up into the jet stream, has experienced magma chamber draining series of eruptions that created the current HUGE Kilauea crater (Over 2mi dia) & has had periods of high pyroclastic flow events that can cause searing steam/ash/lava flows that scream miles down the summit - Keoneheleelei - may have heard of the flow in 1790 that took out warriors with Kiwala`o... many other eruptions happened that century to create the footprints still on the Kau Desert Trail...
https://www.nps.gov/havo/learn/historycu...prints.htm
Please do not make the assumption that Kilauea cannot do a type of eruption, just because it has not happened in a couple of centuries... as this is what the USGS has warned, we are approaching the normal swing of the phases to enter into a more "eventful" phase....
WHEN that will happen is a guess,
IF it will happen is a continuation of the geology that Kilauea has been built on...
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Totally not sleeping now.
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KJ, yep... Packing up the go boxes.
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Is there any kind of emergency fostering of horses and other live stock? I don't have any real acreage but might be able to help in some way when time is of the essence.
1 island 2 another
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In the interest of raising awareness and discouraging complacency: although the likelihood of a Mt. St. Helens eruption is unlikely for the ERZ, the Pawai and Puulena craters are thought by some to have resulted in explosive interaction between magma and groundwater that generated a substantial ash blanket that extended for several kilometers around those craters. I believe Dick Moore from the USGS mapped that ash layer back in the 1980's. We don't have any data on the sequence of events that may occur - or the rate at which things could go sideways - so, IMHO, everyone in the vicinity of Leilani Estates should prepare for a fairly quick evacuation.
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"I don't have any real acreage but might be able to help in some way when time is of the essence."
Good fences are more important than the amount of acreage. And trucks and trailers to get the animals there.
