Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here)

[kander]

The whole economic catastrophe coming is worthy of its own thread. This is shaping up to be the black swan event.

As T.S. Elliot wrote "This is how the world ends, not with a bang, but with a whimper."

[Old Croc]

COVID-19 perspective:
Population of Earth -- 7.8 billion
Cases reported -- 81,600
Deaths -- 2,767
U.S. deaths -- 1
U.S. deaths from influenza (annually) -- 25,000 to 69,000
U.S. deaths from influenza (past decade) -- 350,000

[ironyak]

Perspective with time factored in:
Deaths from H1N1 Swine Flu
1917 = ~0
1920 = 50 - 100 million people

It's all insignificant until it isn't.

"This is how the world ends, not with a bang, but with a
fever and dry cough?

Of course it's not the end of the world (what ever has been?) but with even a 2 in 1000 fatality rate for the young, and 1 in 10 fatality for the elderly, most of us will likely know someone who dies from this. Thankfully they're not statistically significant?

[Guest]

why play around?

with a 1 in 10 fatality for the elderly, many of us will die.

[kander]

There are only 110,000 breathing machines in the entire country.. I would guess Hawaii and in particular Hawaii Island has far fewer. There are plans in the works to create field hospitals in repurposed areas. but by the time they are being implemented and end up in one the chances of survival will go down.

Here is what is going to happen:
Based on what I have been able to route out (because the China data is complete Bull**** and data coming from other more honest countries are proving they are lying).

Were looking at a death rate slightly higher than SARS of those who become infected. SARS death rate is slightly above 10%. (with state of the art medical help)
20 to 30% of the population infected will require hospitalization.
Elderly are more at risk but the young and old will be affected.
Economic ramifications as schools are forced to shut and businesses are forced to shut down (too little too late is my guess)
It will be unlike anything we have seen. Social fabric is likely to break down because as people start to loose everything they loose it.

There are things that can reduce personal risk. Time and distance from people is above all others.
Those who have payed attention and heeded the warnings will likely fare much better than the reckless. There is not much else we can do except watch and wait and hope that an effective vaccine can be brought fourth before 2 billion+ people die.

Once again, this is not the flu. Stop even remotely thinking that this is "just the flu". Every fire starts as a spark.

[terracore]

We might have 110,000 ventilators in US hospitals but they aren't "spare" ventilators most of them are already being used. According to this article that doesn't bode well:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...-hospitals

"The study shows the burden required to treat the 5% of so-called Covid-19 patients who develop critical illness, including septic shock and multi-organ failure....More than two-thirds of critically ill patients required invasive breathing support, doctors at the Jin Yintan hospital in the central Chinese city of Wuhan found in a study of 52 such cases at the outbreak’s epicenter.

The treatment was mostly for a respiratory complication that occurred in 26 of the 32 people who died from the disease. That’s more than 80%...Three of the Jin Yintan patients were still getting invasive ventilation at 28 days, including one whose blood was being pumped through an artificial lung in a sophisticated procedure known as extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.

That burden could become more acute: More than 40,000 people are hospitalized with Covid-19 in Hubei, health authorities for the Chinese province said in a Feb. 23 statement. Among those, 8,853 cases are serious and 1,845 are critically ill. The total number of cases in China is about 77,000."

[ironyak]

Were looking at a death rate slightly higher than SARS of those who become infected. SARS death rate is slightly above 10%. (with state of the art medical help)

Source or reasoning? (note that I'm not arguing with much of what else you or terracore are saying, although I find your predictions a bit bold. Just checking the underlying numbers.)

[terracore]

88,000 infected over 3,000 dead = 3.4%. Just looking at the numbers. Problem is that 45,000 have not yet recovered. Add into that the Chinese and Iranian figures aren't accurate. When all is said and done it will probably take 2 years before they publish an accurate death rate.

Seasonal flu death rate is "usually" about 0.1%.

ETA: From Bloomberg article above "More than 40,000 people are hospitalized with Covid-19 in Hubei". Think about that for a minute. almost half of known infections require hospitalization. I understand that 20% of those require ICU. They are modeling a 60% global infection rate. How are we supposed to hospitalize an additional 25% of our population? That's almost 88 million people in the USA.

[kander]

quote:

---

Originally posted by ironyak

[i]Source or reasoning? (note that I'm not arguing with much of what else you or terracore are saying, although I find your predictions a bit bold. Just checking the underlying numbers.)

---

Sometimes the truth slips out. An interview done with a Dr in Wuhan the sly devil he is, leaked a key bit of information.
https://twitter.com/howroute/status/1233442083555422209

I will go further to say that CCP is ordering the destruction of all data and records pertaining to this outbreak. Always trying to cover their incompetence up. If there are no records to be audited later how can they be blamed for leading the world down a false sense of security?

[terracore]

"I'm not arguing with much of what else you or terracore are saying, although I find your predictions a bit bold."

If there is the slightest perception that I'm posting predictions, let me clear the air: I'm not qualified to post a prediction. All I'm posting is information from news outlets and the occasional number grinding using https://www.wolframalpha.com/

We must all form our own conclusions from the data that is presented. But consider the source, and the motivation.