Death Percent

[Guest]

I'm not sure my thoughts count for much...

Never fear yak, they always shoot the messenger. You're in good company. Some of the best..

Thanks brah.

[terracore]

quote:

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Originally posted by sistersue

I don't understand how anyone can know what the true death percent of this virus is if 82% of infected people don't even know they have it because their symptoms are so mild.

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The percentage they quote refers to people who are diagnosed. Since most people who are diagnosed have symptoms, the numbers they are throwing around are generally for people who have symptoms.

The CDC's calculations for influenza deaths are the opposite, they use data calculations to run estimates. For example if you've never tested positive for the flu, and your death certificate says "heart attack" or "pneumonia" they will count you as an influenza death because... because that's what the data modeling says:

"CDC uses a mathematical model to estimate the numbers of influenza illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States...Adjusted rates are applied to the U.S. population...Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has been recognized for many years that influenza is underreported on death certificates....modeling strategies are commonly used to estimate flu-associated deaths. Only counting deaths where influenza was recorded on a death certificate would be a gross underestimation of influenza’s true impact...Even if a patient is tested for influenza, influenza virus infection may not be identified..."

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how...imates.htm

So the quick answer is that influenza deaths are calculated from mathematical models and not raw data (similar to climate change). It will take years for these models to be developed for the new virus.

Until then, divide number of known cases by number of deaths and use a "raw data" model.

[tgalarneau]

Ironyak, excellent post.

I think we here in Hawaii are in an very good position.

We have few ports of entry. A cruise ship ban and through screening at our airports would give good control over incoming infections.

Hawaii residents health status is rated top notch. We have a low population density with plenty of fresh air.

Respiratory infections usually go down with warm temperatures that our like our everyday weather.

For us in Puna self-isolating is in our blood and even my neighbors sneeze will never reach me through the jungle.

Our government is overly paternalistic, which for once may make sense.

And a timely vaccine will end this as a danger. Our families can easily wait this out.

[ironyak]

tgalarneau - If 30% of our 7 billion on the planet become infected, using the Chinese mortality rate would leave around 82 million dead. Worse than the 50 million would died from the 1918-1920 spanish flu.

Those are the cold hard equations involved. Do what you can to not be part of their results!

Of confirmed infections and deaths - mortality rate is:
Can you link to this source? Not doubting the numbers just always a looking for good data (math nerds unite!

I unfortunately do not share your optimism given the lack of testing (it's almost certainly already here) and the lack of healthcare resources (~450 TOTAL hospital beds on island, many of them in use). Our climate, low population density, and DIY attitude in Puna are definitely assets. The large number of low-income households, older retirees, lack of access to healthcare, and low police enforcement are areas of significant concern.

Everyone please take this seriously - what does it hurt to have preparations and end up not needing them?

[terracore]

16+ years still waiting for the SARS vaccine. The only promising candidate made the patients sicker. 35+ years no HIV vaccine. No vaccine for colds, no truly effective influenza vaccine. There's a vaccine for Dengue, but you can't get it unless you've already survived Dengue. They do have corona virus vaccines for livestock, however as far as I know they are intestinal, not respiratory illnesses.

I'm not posting this for the doom factor, and I'm not saying their isn't hope for a treatment, I'm just saying that I *HOPE* they are putting as much effort into anti-viral drug research as they are vaccine because for with many diseases like HIV has been the only effective solution.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

obligated to try and explain some of the numbers.

What do the numbers mean anymore? If beloved film star Tom Hanks and his wife have contracted the virus, I think we all recognize anyone can get it. This is a moment like when Magic Johnson tested positive for AIDS. It got real.

[tgalarneau]

I used the John Hopkins University numbers Hokuili linked and then divided for percent. These are the best constantly updated data I have found to date.

It is alarming to see the rapidly increasing numbers and if some recent mathematical models prove correct the total infected could reach 1 million by the end of the month.

[sistersue]

tgalarneau:
I really like your posts and you make a lot of sense. I did feel pretty dumb, though, when you said how could they know any percentages, whether talking about mild (82%) or death percentages when they have no idea how many people have actually had the infection in the first place?
"Isolation is in our blood" was so true, at least for me. I could easily stay on my property with plenty to do for weeks with no close contact with anyone and it would be fine with me! In fact, I'm kind of like that anyway. My granddaughter offered to shop for me and drop it off so I wouldn't even have to go to the store! But I know most people aren't that lucky. Aloha ~

[ironyak]

Sounds like a good plan sistersue - Enjoy the weather!

terracore - Until then, divide number of known cases by number of deaths and use a "raw data" model.

Quick quibble (liked all the rest
CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered), for closed cases
or
CFR = deaths / total cases, for open cases as you're recommending

I think your numerator and denominator are flipped as described.

Plenty of info on the challenges and tricks of calculating a CFR during an ongoing epidemic here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...eath-rate/

[Mangosteen]

Risk looks pretty small for those under 60 even if they catch it.
Age of Coronavirus Deaths
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group.

In general, relatively few cases are seen among children.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...ographics/