Hurricane season 2026

[kalianna]

   
Donʻt panic when you look at this as none of these appears to be a threat to Hawaiʻi, but Iʻve never seen so many potential storms in the Pacific all at once.

[randomq]

El niño is a liberal hoax, and those charts are generated by the NOAA deep state. But, if they were real, they would be a bit scary...

[Durian Fiend]

It's real, a result of geoengineering from our commie enemies in the European Union.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

geoengineering from our commie enemies in the European Union.

We’re way ahead of them with Marine Cloud Brightening. There have been different iterations over the years suggesting aerosols, calcium based powders, etc to reduce global warming, but this has been modeled specifically for El Niño over open ocean:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/science/artic...00286.html

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

As we’re getting closer to the time when hurricanes begin to form, I thought I’d link this El Niño update which is likely to affect our storm season.  I’d never heard of the website before, but it’s been described as containing accurate information, but with click-bait style headlines.  

The quote and chart below show El Niño is getting even stronger than previously expected.

But it’s not just the strength of the forecast that matters. We are also observing a trend in which each new forecast shows a stronger event. Below is an example from the last three ECMWF forecasts for the main ENSO region, released in March, April, and May. You can clearly see that each new run shows a stronger event.



https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range...europe-fa/

[Durian Fiend]

The current El nino index is 1.99. That's the Celsius measurement of how much warmer the surface ocean water in region 3.4 of the Pacific is over "normal".
The record high is 2.6 in 2015-2016. This year's projection is expected to peak around 3.6, a huge increase over the previous record! This would likely be happening in November or December.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Hurricane Fausto, excerpts from Hili Trib Herald:

Fausto has become the first hurricane of the 2026 hurricane season and has a forecast track that could bring it toward Hawaii.

At 5 p.m. Hawaii time, Fausto was located about 745 miles southwest of the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Fausto, the sixth named storm of 2026 hurricane season, is moving to the northwest at 9 mph with a turn toward the west-northwest expected by Wednesday. That would potentially put Fausto in motion toward Hawaii.

Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, with Fausto forecast to near major hurricane intensity by Wednesday.

The current projected track has Fausto, still at hurricane strength, approaching the Central Pacific Basin at 140 degrees West longitude on Saturday. The track would have Fausto at about 20 degrees North latitude, which means it would be moving toward Hilo.

https://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/202...e-of-2026/


Spaghetti models all track north of Hilo.
Fausto screenshot Tuesday 7/21:

   

https://www.cyclocane.com/fausto-storm-tracker/

[Punatang]

Mod2 might not think Hurricanes are important Edge, but I humbly do, and I'm grateful for this important information.  Hopefully we are spared.  I have friends still dealing with issues from the Kona Low which was also important and definitely not "normal".

Time to tune up those generators, think about Starlink or other resilient coms and all of the things!

@chunkster did you make your window coverings?  Those can also be very important.

[ChunksterK]

@Punatang: Yes, they are cut, painted with sealant, and numbered for efficient installation. Also got the generator tuned up. The guy said it would have been OK, but is now in top condition. We also bought a cell signal amplifier with a mast that can be extended after a storm has passed. Of course that won't help if the phone towers go down, but it's better than nothing.

As for Fausto, HOTPE's helpful graphic agrees with several others I've seen. Hopefully, all my prep won't be needed. I certainly won't be disappointed if that is the case.

[ironyak]

Here's a different visualization of Fausto that combines the forecasted path and tropical winds data. Models have it now slightly more to the south and towards us, and weakening before its arrival in the neighborhood in just under a week.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026...acker.html