Hurricane season 2026

[ironyak]

sistersue - it's important to remember what the National Hurricane Center says about the cone of uncertainty at the top of their predictions maps.

"The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside the cone."

Even at just 24 hours before landfall, the map shows that Iselle could have crossed Hawai'i island anywhere from South Point to Hawi. The storm center hit land near Pahala which resulted in Puna receiving those extra strong winds from the north edge of the storm.

As for where Storm Lala is going to hit land - no one knows and won't know until it happens. Its impacts could be less than Iselle, the same, or worse.

Make preparations. Stay safe.

[MyManao]

Make preparations. Stay safe.

Always a good idea.

Currently I see Google guy’s modeling keeping the center close to the island while the European modeling is now trending further south… and I note this because I wonder, does google with it’s AI know more, or does AI with it’s inability to tell right from wrong have too much noise? Whereas the EU modeling is more a hands on tried and true process that has been refined overtime?

The EU has, over time, been more accurate than the American modeling.. so I tend to put more faith in them than google's algorithms,  but hey, no matter, it certainly will be fun watching this play out. Live and learn, eh?

And as Yak says.. Stay safe!

[BlackAkita]

At this stage, I hope there is no loss of life. But, I also wonder about how the storm is classified once it crosses land, i.e., will it be deemed a hurricane (winds at or above 74 mph) or a "named" tropical storm (winds 39 - 73 mph)?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aUpTibuuxM

Will this be the first ever hurricane to impact the Big Island? With my bad luck and Laulima policy, it appears that a high deductible will be my fate in either case. Was the insurance payout minuscule with Iselle, too?

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

I don’t like the latest ECMWF model.
The projected path is south of Big Island, then as it is directly south it veers north into our island.  Iniki like turn.

I used the model on Tropical Tidbits

[ironyak]

Yak - Make preparations. Stay safe.
MM - Always a good idea.
Alarm bells always ring when it sounds like someone is trying to convince themself to not take precautions. Better to have preparations and not need them, than need them and not have them. Plenty of time left today and during the day tomorrow to get any supplies needed and get settled in.

HereOnThePrimalEdge - I don’t like the latest ECMWF model. The projected path is south of Big Island, then as it is directly south it veers north into our island.
Yeah, not nice. Hopefully the path goes back to the south on the next run of the model.
   

Thanks for the video BlackAkita! Lots of good info and different sources than usual, including some commercial sites, packed into that 10 mins. Iselle was a mess - no single story or outcome - lots of posts and threads if you go digging.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aUpTibuuxM

[kalianna]

The part thatʻs frustrating is that I donʻt know what Iʻm prepping for. HPP forecast says 40 mph wind, but could be 75 mph. Thatʻs a big difference. I donʻt want to move all the furniture, garden stuff, etc if I donʻt need to. Been there done that and then we have to move it all back. So today weʻre going with best case scenario (secure the little stuff) and will do more tomorrow if needed.

[ChunksterK]

I just got a hurricane warning on my phone. 36 hours, it says. Time to put on the new window covers.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Here’s Iselle’s cone less than 24 hours from landfall, which turned out to be a fairly accurate forecast..

I don't think that's correct. From what I can tell,

Hilo got 15mph less winds, …the abundance of Albizia, and they all blew down, and took the grid with them. Without the Albizia the damage would have been far less.

A couple of comments and/or clarifications.
The forecast which I said was fairly accurate showed a path and a cone of uncertainty.  The actual path did fall within the cone of uncertainty.  So I considered it a fairly accurate forecast.

I watched the TV newscasters from my front row seat in HPP during Iselle.  Until the power went out.  They had flown in from Honolulu, and many of their comments entailed wondering where the storm was.  The weather didn’t seem bad to them.  During the night in HPP I heard the wind switch direction three or four  times, blow off branches from my Cook Island Pines that have never blown off any other time in 25 years.  Beach Road was closed for a week without a single albezia in sight.  Almost all the ironwoods were on their sides, with roots that had clearly never penetrated into the rock because there is little soil in HPP.  Ironwoods and most other trees had a mat of roots that had spread outward across the lava, never penetrating down, so when the winds hit they fell, exposing a circular mat of roots sometimes 6-8 feet in diameter, some even larger.  I’ve never seen this in 25 years either.  Yes there was substantial albezia damage, but there was plenty of damage from other trees as well.

The difference in wind speed between Hilo and HPP far exceeded your 15 mph estimate.  I don’t know by how much, but if you would provide me with a link to an Iselle wind speed map I’d like to see it.  I would guess it was more like 25-30 mph.

The north side of these storms is the most destructive, but depending on the storm the winds can drop off relatively quickly as you go farther north.  Let’s hope Puna is far enough north of Lala’s path.

[Punatang]

Chunkster, I meant to applaud your work on the new window covers.  It sure sounds like you built those buggers für die ewigkeit.

[MyManao]

The difference in wind speed between Hilo and HPP far exceeded your 15 mph estimate.  I don’t know by how much, but if you would provide me with a link to an Iselle wind speed map I’d like to see it.  I would guess it was more like 25-30 mph.

Interesting the effect all those downed trees had..

From: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/new...p-20140809

Hurricane Iselle Recap: Hawaii Landfall with Flooding and Wind Damage

Which begins..

Iselle made landfall at 2:30 a.m. HST on Friday, Aug. 8 about five miles east of Pahala, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. The only other tropical storm on record dating to 1950 to come in from the east and hit the Big Island was in 1958, with peak sustained winds of 50 mph. Overall, Iselle is a rare -- if not historical -- tropical cyclone.

And has a graph called..

ISELLE OBSERVED PEAK WIND GUSTS HAWAII

MAUNA KEA, HAWAII (13,803 FT.) 91 MPH
OAHU FOREST NWR (2,293 FT.) 72 MPH
KEALIALALO, KAHOOLAWE (825 FT.) 67 MPH
PALI, HAWAII (2,808 FT.) 66 MPH
LANAI CITY, LANAI (1,309 FT.) 62 MPH
HILO, HAWAII 54 MPH

Methinks, if you are going to use the cone of uncertainty in the way you have you're robbing reality of all sorts of certainty we have. We have the actual track, we have the actual speeds, we have the history every which way and as such a cone of uncertainty is not the same, and certainly doesn't add up to anything accurate when there is so much of that stuff around..

And yes, gusts of over 50 mph in hilo and sustained winds of 60 in the storms center aren't a true 1:1 but man they aren't "25-30 mph" apart either. I am sure if you used whatever search engine, even without AI.. you can find all sorts of interesting tidbits that are more accurate than that cone.. 

Talkin' cones... with the NHC 5pm update all the data sets.. cones.. noodles.. all that kine stuff has it taking a slightly more northerly track.. back to being closer to us.