05-18-2016, 07:59 PM
There are more recent studies available, will try and post some links. You also mentioned you're not sure that simply dividing a 9% chance by 50 to give a 0.18% chance is valid. I think you're right. Will look into the weird field of probability when I get the chance, but think it's much nearer 1%. I might have this wrong but in general you can't just use simple math with probabilities. I dislike this subject more than most since I have a hard time actually picturing probabilities in my mind, but the math is hard to ignore.