ISS, Tiangong, Satellites Over Puna

[TomK]

HOTPE - it turns out the info is in Heavens Above. This is just the info for the satellite that produced the flare earlier this evening:

http://www.heavens-above.com/SatInfo.aspx?satid=27375&

Intrinsic brightness (Magnitude): 6.2
Maximum brightness (Magnitude) 5.1 (perigee, when it's closest to the Earth).

It'll be slightly different for each of the Iridium satellites, but assuming this is typical, the brightness is close to the limit the naked eye can see on a dark night. So, yes, you might be able to see it before the flare, but you'd have to know exactly where to look and be quite lucky to spot it.

I think the only way to guarantee you could see it is to use a fairly decent camera, on a tripod, taking video in the general area. I will look to see if the numbers above are typical or not though, but would be surprised if they aren't.

I'm assuming you're not an advanced amateur astronomer who's able to use RA/dec or Alt/Az plus tracking rates. If you are, I should be able to post that info for the next bright flare.

ETA: I did a quick spot-check of various Iridium satellites. The numbers above are typical. That's not a surprise as the Iridium satellites are all in similar orbits.