05-03-2017, 04:58 PM
Glad you got to see it, Jeremy!
The brightness of this one was much closer to the prediction, so glad about that. Despite the moon, I managed to spot it as it came out of some cloud about a minute before the flare, which surprised me. My guess about the previous flare is that the prediction may have been based on slightly out of date orbital information. For objects in low earth orbit, this information changes often (depending on the orbit, anything from a few hours to a few days) due to interactions with the edge of the atmosphere and small gravitational perturbations.
The next bright evening flare is on the evening of May 17 and the moon won't be up. The current prediction has it about ten times brighter than tonight's one.
The brightness of this one was much closer to the prediction, so glad about that. Despite the moon, I managed to spot it as it came out of some cloud about a minute before the flare, which surprised me. My guess about the previous flare is that the prediction may have been based on slightly out of date orbital information. For objects in low earth orbit, this information changes often (depending on the orbit, anything from a few hours to a few days) due to interactions with the edge of the atmosphere and small gravitational perturbations.
The next bright evening flare is on the evening of May 17 and the moon won't be up. The current prediction has it about ten times brighter than tonight's one.