09-11-2017, 05:05 PM
"If you're interested in the accuracy of the forecasts, here's a time lapse of predicted paths vs actual path for Harvey, Irma and Jose.
https://imgur.com/a/zuk7r"
Thanks for that, Eric. It's a nice demonstration of why forecasts of hurricane tracks tend to show three and five-day tracks only. Three-day tracks are clearly quite accurate while the five-day forecasts are still very good, but the errors increase. Beyond that, you still get a decent idea of the track but given the number of variables that need to be calculated plus the fact that the atmosphere is somewhat of a chaotic system, they are still pretty good. I think the meteorologists have done a wonderful job in recent years improving these forecasts, and as Paul says, have saved many lives.
https://imgur.com/a/zuk7r"
Thanks for that, Eric. It's a nice demonstration of why forecasts of hurricane tracks tend to show three and five-day tracks only. Three-day tracks are clearly quite accurate while the five-day forecasts are still very good, but the errors increase. Beyond that, you still get a decent idea of the track but given the number of variables that need to be calculated plus the fact that the atmosphere is somewhat of a chaotic system, they are still pretty good. I think the meteorologists have done a wonderful job in recent years improving these forecasts, and as Paul says, have saved many lives.