09-10-2018, 05:47 AM
the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time.
Carey makes a good point, one that we should not ignore. Olivia is 36 hours away, and a lot could happen in that amount of time.
For example, take another predictive model from the Green Bay-Chicago football game yesterday. With 2 1/2 minutes left in the game, Chicago had approximately a 95% chance of winning. (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DmtFeTdXgAAYxHq.jpg) The Packers had to run the length of the field with NO TIMEOUTS. But... the Packers have Aaron Rodgers as quarterback and he threw a touchdown in less than 30 seconds. Did the predictive model account for the Aaron Rodgers X factor*? And if it did, why was a nearly certain outcome negated, by something, an intangible, some unknown influence unaccounted for by the algorithm.
Hurricane projections and storm models are like that too. So keep watching the forecasts, top up your emergency supply of butter pecan and mint chocolate chip ice cream, and hang on tight for another day and a half. Stay tuned.
* Rodgers was carted off the field in the 2nd quarter, returned after half time with his team down 20-0. He played on a gimpy leg. But he was also Aaron Rodgers. How does an algorithm account for that? Weather models are equally complex.
Carey makes a good point, one that we should not ignore. Olivia is 36 hours away, and a lot could happen in that amount of time.
For example, take another predictive model from the Green Bay-Chicago football game yesterday. With 2 1/2 minutes left in the game, Chicago had approximately a 95% chance of winning. (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DmtFeTdXgAAYxHq.jpg) The Packers had to run the length of the field with NO TIMEOUTS. But... the Packers have Aaron Rodgers as quarterback and he threw a touchdown in less than 30 seconds. Did the predictive model account for the Aaron Rodgers X factor*? And if it did, why was a nearly certain outcome negated, by something, an intangible, some unknown influence unaccounted for by the algorithm.
Hurricane projections and storm models are like that too. So keep watching the forecasts, top up your emergency supply of butter pecan and mint chocolate chip ice cream, and hang on tight for another day and a half. Stay tuned.
* Rodgers was carted off the field in the 2nd quarter, returned after half time with his team down 20-0. He played on a gimpy leg. But he was also Aaron Rodgers. How does an algorithm account for that? Weather models are equally complex.
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves