07-20-2019, 04:19 PM
HereOnThePrimalEdge - While those polls were off, they were not off by that much...
Agreed, but remember the numerous, large-scale presidential polls were of registered voters trying to predict the outcome of a vote (for which they still failed). In this case the poll is of registered, regular voters trying to account for support from a largely nonparticipating separate population. The missing data is how many Native Hawaiians are registered voters who vote regularly, which would help estimate the sample bias (which again has no easy way to assess).
Regardless, given that a number of people have choose direct action, and given both the legal requirements of the state along with the political atmosphere, a poll, or even a vote, isn't going to really solve or answer anything. The state and/or the TMT will need to assert its will in the process as those on the mountain already have done.
Agreed, but remember the numerous, large-scale presidential polls were of registered voters trying to predict the outcome of a vote (for which they still failed). In this case the poll is of registered, regular voters trying to account for support from a largely nonparticipating separate population. The missing data is how many Native Hawaiians are registered voters who vote regularly, which would help estimate the sample bias (which again has no easy way to assess).
Regardless, given that a number of people have choose direct action, and given both the legal requirements of the state along with the political atmosphere, a poll, or even a vote, isn't going to really solve or answer anything. The state and/or the TMT will need to assert its will in the process as those on the mountain already have done.