03-11-2020, 11:52 AM
I'm not sure my thoughts count for much, but I feel obligated to try and explain some of the numbers.
The current data coming out of Italy is that the MEDIAN age in Intensive Care there is 65. That means half the people in ICU are under 65 and half are over 65. This is not just a old person disease (watch the video of the Italian ICU doctor from yesterday - there are kids in their 20's having to be intubated).
https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1237466553613840384
the vast majority of people who get the virus are only moderately effected
80% of people would have mild to moderate effects which is everything short of requiring hospitalization. 2-3 weeks of pneumonia is considered just a moderate effect. The other 20% requires hospitalization for which there are not enough beds, doctors, nurses, or ventilators available if even a moderate percentage of the population gets sick at the same time.
recover with no ill effects
This disease is 3 months old - what the long terms effects are, if any, is obviously unknowable. There are already recommendations for follow-ups to track possible long term lung damage (like seen with the previous SARS virus)
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20...142018.htm
"Ultimately, the authors of this AJR article recommended CT for follow-up in patients recovering from COVID-19 to evaluate long-term or even permanent pulmonary damage, including fibrosis -- as seen in SARS and MERS infections."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-fede...he-us.html
"Fauci said COVID-19 is at least 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu"
That means we could see AT LEAST 10 years worth of flu deaths from this (~120,000 to 610,000 deaths) on top of the usual flu deaths. If it's "just the flu", it could be the worst flu season BY FAR in many decades.
It is the elderly and ill of health that are at risk.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...ographics/
Yes, the elderly and ill at health are more at risk of dying (from 1 in 30 people aged 60-69 dying to about 1 in 8 people aged 80+.) Do you know 30 people above the age of 60? This means one or more of them are likely to die from this if they get infected.
That does not mean young people don't die. For every 1000 teenagers that get this, about 2 of them will die. That is true for every age group up to 40 at which point it starts to go up.
I'm not sure if all this helps or not, but it seems wise for everyone to pay attention to this outbreak, if not for your own health, then perhaps at least for the lives of the most vulnerable in our community?
The current data coming out of Italy is that the MEDIAN age in Intensive Care there is 65. That means half the people in ICU are under 65 and half are over 65. This is not just a old person disease (watch the video of the Italian ICU doctor from yesterday - there are kids in their 20's having to be intubated).
https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1237466553613840384
the vast majority of people who get the virus are only moderately effected
80% of people would have mild to moderate effects which is everything short of requiring hospitalization. 2-3 weeks of pneumonia is considered just a moderate effect. The other 20% requires hospitalization for which there are not enough beds, doctors, nurses, or ventilators available if even a moderate percentage of the population gets sick at the same time.
recover with no ill effects
This disease is 3 months old - what the long terms effects are, if any, is obviously unknowable. There are already recommendations for follow-ups to track possible long term lung damage (like seen with the previous SARS virus)
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20...142018.htm
"Ultimately, the authors of this AJR article recommended CT for follow-up in patients recovering from COVID-19 to evaluate long-term or even permanent pulmonary damage, including fibrosis -- as seen in SARS and MERS infections."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-fede...he-us.html
"Fauci said COVID-19 is at least 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu"
That means we could see AT LEAST 10 years worth of flu deaths from this (~120,000 to 610,000 deaths) on top of the usual flu deaths. If it's "just the flu", it could be the worst flu season BY FAR in many decades.
It is the elderly and ill of health that are at risk.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...ographics/
Yes, the elderly and ill at health are more at risk of dying (from 1 in 30 people aged 60-69 dying to about 1 in 8 people aged 80+.) Do you know 30 people above the age of 60? This means one or more of them are likely to die from this if they get infected.
That does not mean young people don't die. For every 1000 teenagers that get this, about 2 of them will die. That is true for every age group up to 40 at which point it starts to go up.
I'm not sure if all this helps or not, but it seems wise for everyone to pay attention to this outbreak, if not for your own health, then perhaps at least for the lives of the most vulnerable in our community?