03-11-2020, 12:31 PM
quote:
Originally posted by sistersue
I don't understand how anyone can know what the true death percent of this virus is if 82% of infected people don't even know they have it because their symptoms are so mild.
The percentage they quote refers to people who are diagnosed. Since most people who are diagnosed have symptoms, the numbers they are throwing around are generally for people who have symptoms.
The CDC's calculations for influenza deaths are the opposite, they use data calculations to run estimates. For example if you've never tested positive for the flu, and your death certificate says "heart attack" or "pneumonia" they will count you as an influenza death because... because that's what the data modeling says:
"CDC uses a mathematical model to estimate the numbers of influenza illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States...Adjusted rates are applied to the U.S. population...Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has been recognized for many years that influenza is underreported on death certificates....modeling strategies are commonly used to estimate flu-associated deaths. Only counting deaths where influenza was recorded on a death certificate would be a gross underestimation of influenza’s true impact...Even if a patient is tested for influenza, influenza virus infection may not be identified..."
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how...imates.htm
So the quick answer is that influenza deaths are calculated from mathematical models and not raw data (similar to climate change). It will take years for these models to be developed for the new virus.
Until then, divide number of known cases by number of deaths and use a "raw data" model.