03-16-2021, 04:43 AM
Good news: Drier air moving into the area this week.
Not so good news: "The GFS and ECMFW global models both show a low cutting off north
of the islands next week. If the models are correct, that could
mean another period of rainy weather."
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=HFO&issuedby=HFO&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
000
FXHW60 PHFO 160343 AAA
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
543 PM HST Mon Mar 15 2021
.UPDATE...
The Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled. Some heavy rain is still
possible for the next few hours, but the threat of flooding has
diminished.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough over Oahu will dissipate over the next 24 hours.
A trough aloft will interact with lingering moisture from the
surface trough to produce locally heavy rain through this evening.
As the surface trough dissipates, trade winds will spread over
all the islands by tomorrow evening. Drier air will spread over
the islands through the second half of the week. A low cutting off
north of the area next week could bring another round of wet
weather.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM HST Mon Mar 15 2021/
As of 2 PM surface analyses show a northeast to southwest trough
over Oahu. A trough aloft is moving over the area from the
northwest. Light winds near the surface trough allowed sea
breezes to develop over Oahu, Maui County and the Big Island.
Instability from the trough aloft has allowed heavy showers to
form. Satellite and radar loops show mostly cloudy skies over the
islands with mostly sunny skies over water around the islands.
Radars show locally heavy showers over the Big Island, and Maui
and widespread heavy showers over Oahu. Northeast trade winds west
of the trough are focusing numerous showers over windward Kauai,
but these showers have not been heavy. The showers over Oahu, Maui
County and the Big Island will subside as daytime heating ends.
Windward showers will continue over Kauai.
Trade winds will spread west over the islands over the next few
days as the surface trough dissipates and the atmosphere will
gradually become more stable. The trade winds will continue to
carry showery low clouds over the islands through at least mid-
week. Drier air will spread over the islands starting Thursday.
The GFS and ECMFW global models both show a low cutting off north
of the islands next week. If the models are correct, that could
mean another period of rainy weather.
Not so good news: "The GFS and ECMFW global models both show a low cutting off north
of the islands next week. If the models are correct, that could
mean another period of rainy weather."
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=HFO&issuedby=HFO&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
000
FXHW60 PHFO 160343 AAA
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
543 PM HST Mon Mar 15 2021
.UPDATE...
The Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled. Some heavy rain is still
possible for the next few hours, but the threat of flooding has
diminished.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough over Oahu will dissipate over the next 24 hours.
A trough aloft will interact with lingering moisture from the
surface trough to produce locally heavy rain through this evening.
As the surface trough dissipates, trade winds will spread over
all the islands by tomorrow evening. Drier air will spread over
the islands through the second half of the week. A low cutting off
north of the area next week could bring another round of wet
weather.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM HST Mon Mar 15 2021/
As of 2 PM surface analyses show a northeast to southwest trough
over Oahu. A trough aloft is moving over the area from the
northwest. Light winds near the surface trough allowed sea
breezes to develop over Oahu, Maui County and the Big Island.
Instability from the trough aloft has allowed heavy showers to
form. Satellite and radar loops show mostly cloudy skies over the
islands with mostly sunny skies over water around the islands.
Radars show locally heavy showers over the Big Island, and Maui
and widespread heavy showers over Oahu. Northeast trade winds west
of the trough are focusing numerous showers over windward Kauai,
but these showers have not been heavy. The showers over Oahu, Maui
County and the Big Island will subside as daytime heating ends.
Windward showers will continue over Kauai.
Trade winds will spread west over the islands over the next few
days as the surface trough dissipates and the atmosphere will
gradually become more stable. The trade winds will continue to
carry showery low clouds over the islands through at least mid-
week. Drier air will spread over the islands starting Thursday.
The GFS and ECMFW global models both show a low cutting off north
of the islands next week. If the models are correct, that could
mean another period of rainy weather.