08-09-2021, 06:39 PM
what do you propose as a solution? Another lockdown? Another year of distance education? Shuttering of hotels and resorts?
An extra deadly communicable disease spread by coughing, sneezing, even speaking and some people suggest it’s business as usual. Here’s a book they can read, of study after study showing how the human mind assesses risk, makes decisions and reaches conclusions. I’ll summarize, humans are extraordinary bad at determining their own risk in a given situation.
Kahneman writes of a "pervasive optimistic bias", which "may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases." This bias generates the illusion of control: the illusion that we have substantial control of our lives.
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The second section offers explanations for why humans struggle to think statistically.
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Kahneman uses heuristics to assert that System 1 thinking involves associating new information with existing patterns, or thoughts, rather than creating new patterns for each new experience.
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The "anchoring effect" names a tendency to be influenced by irrelevant numbers.
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The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that occurs when people make judgments about the probability of events on the basis of how easy it is to think of examples.
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System 1 is prone to substituting a simpler question for a difficult one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow
An extra deadly communicable disease spread by coughing, sneezing, even speaking and some people suggest it’s business as usual. Here’s a book they can read, of study after study showing how the human mind assesses risk, makes decisions and reaches conclusions. I’ll summarize, humans are extraordinary bad at determining their own risk in a given situation.
Kahneman writes of a "pervasive optimistic bias", which "may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases." This bias generates the illusion of control: the illusion that we have substantial control of our lives.
...
The second section offers explanations for why humans struggle to think statistically.
...
Kahneman uses heuristics to assert that System 1 thinking involves associating new information with existing patterns, or thoughts, rather than creating new patterns for each new experience.
...
The "anchoring effect" names a tendency to be influenced by irrelevant numbers.
...
The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that occurs when people make judgments about the probability of events on the basis of how easy it is to think of examples.
...
System 1 is prone to substituting a simpler question for a difficult one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow