11-29-2022, 01:46 AM
(This post was last modified: 11-29-2022, 02:00 AM by ironyak.
Edit Reason: The all important creds
)
Agreed MyManao - that small vent farthest east is right on (over?) the ridge when I overlay the vent map and so could go to the SE. Not enough precision in the pixels given so we'll have to wait and see. Getting some deja vu - seems like this possible scenario of vents migrating to the east and ending up flowing SE towards 11 instead of NE towards Hilo was discussed here recently...
https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geo...-migration
"Five times within the past 138 yr (1852, 1855-1856, 1880-1881, 1942, and 1984), lava flows from vents on the northeast rift zone of Mauna Loa Volcano have reached within a few kilometres of Hilo (the largest city on the Island of Hawaii). Most lavas erupted on this rift zone in historical time have traveled northeastward (toward Hilo), because their eruptive vents have been concentrated north of the rift zone's broad topographic axis. However, with few exceptions each successive historical eruption on the northeast rift zone has occurred farther southeast than the preceding one. Had the 1984 eruptive vents (the most southeasterly yet) opened less than 200 m farther southeast, the bulk of the 1984 lavas would have flowed away from Hilo. If this historical vent-migration pattern continues, the next eruption on the northeast rift zone could send lavas to the southeast, toward less populated areas." - John P. Lockwood
https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geo...-migration
"Five times within the past 138 yr (1852, 1855-1856, 1880-1881, 1942, and 1984), lava flows from vents on the northeast rift zone of Mauna Loa Volcano have reached within a few kilometres of Hilo (the largest city on the Island of Hawaii). Most lavas erupted on this rift zone in historical time have traveled northeastward (toward Hilo), because their eruptive vents have been concentrated north of the rift zone's broad topographic axis. However, with few exceptions each successive historical eruption on the northeast rift zone has occurred farther southeast than the preceding one. Had the 1984 eruptive vents (the most southeasterly yet) opened less than 200 m farther southeast, the bulk of the 1984 lavas would have flowed away from Hilo. If this historical vent-migration pattern continues, the next eruption on the northeast rift zone could send lavas to the southeast, toward less populated areas." - John P. Lockwood