There are now 20 brand new homes for sale in HPP.

[Punatang]

This is the 4th bubble that I have observed here over the last 40+ years.  There have been various factors, but one thing has been consistent with all of them: as the prices start to climb, more and more developers and speculators jump on the bandwagon and start building houses and selling them.  The ones who get in early make out very well as long as they know when to stop.  The ones who get in late or keep going thinking the heyday will last forever end up scrambling. 

What we are seeing now is not a buyers’ or sellers’ market.  It’s a non-market.  Builders are scrambling to get their houses finished and on the market before it’s too late, but it’s already too late.  Prospective buyers are seeing the prices go down and will wait until it levels off and at that point they will have many choices of foreclosures and houses priced below what it cost to build them.  We are still a long way from that, the crash is just beginning.

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.

“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”       (E. Hemingway from The Sun Also Rises)

That quote is from before bankruptcy went from a shameful experience to a strategic business maneuver.  And as such it’s most successful when it’s a big surprise to everyone.

“It sounds like you have a great deal of experience with the real estate industry.”

No, not at all.  My experience comes from 43 years of observance as a Puna resident/property owner.  My statement “the crash is just beginning” is not something you would ever hear from someone in the industry.  That would be considered real estate blasphemy.

I would hate to be in the framing stage of a spec home right now.  And on that note, I hope that the developer that is suing the lady for his mistake has reinvested his earnings from the 11 properties that he sold and is in some stage of incompletion on a dozen more.

Two someones in the industry who are active Realtors in HPP have said "this is a crash", to me.  That is 66% of the Realtors I have spoken with.  Blasphemy it is not.  Obvious it is.