Well, that was quick..
Something to consider..
Although in the current instance there’s all sorts of reasons to expect this event to be as short-lived as the just concluded eruption, there have been times where a very low level eruption, that started at a much lower level than this one, instead of stopping soon after it spent the energy it took to get to the surface, went on for years. So, with this line..
Ground deformation has been characterized by slow summit deflation since 2 a.m. HST, suggesting that magma may still be moving from summit storage to the southwest into the eruption area.
at the end of the HVO update suggesting a very low level continuation of this event still ongoing consider this..
At the end of the Puu Oo high fountains phase (July '86), as we had just gone through the 47th eruption at that vent, and were back in the office (HVO) for a few days when a helicopter pilot, who was flying a tour around the eruption site, noticed and radioed us with a report of a very small eruption happening about a mile and a half east of Puu Oo. And, amazingly, that new event hadn’t even trigger any concern instrumentally at the observatory. No obvious eq swarm, no heightened tremor signal, nothing that would have had us looking for it (electronic tilt and GPS didn't exist). It was just erupting.. and was so low level that when we got out there it was unremarkable. So much so that we hardly took any pictures. It wasn't flying in the air and there wasn't a lot of it. It was just lava oozing out of the ground. But we took the measurements we normally did when we were in the area and documented what was going on and being that it was so low level we went back to the office. Over the following days we kept in touch with helicopter pilots that were flying tours regularly in the area. Over a while we fell into a routine of going out once a week and documenting everything. And totally unbeknownst to us that vent, which was later named Kupaianaha, erupted for years. And it eventually destroyed Kalapana.
All's to say the potential that lies behind that last sentence in HVO's update is greater than it sounds. Not to say it will.. but hey..
By my reckoning, this event will be pau when the tilt, as seen in the first plot I posted in this series of posts, turns around, starts inflating again.
Something to consider..
Although in the current instance there’s all sorts of reasons to expect this event to be as short-lived as the just concluded eruption, there have been times where a very low level eruption, that started at a much lower level than this one, instead of stopping soon after it spent the energy it took to get to the surface, went on for years. So, with this line..
Ground deformation has been characterized by slow summit deflation since 2 a.m. HST, suggesting that magma may still be moving from summit storage to the southwest into the eruption area.
at the end of the HVO update suggesting a very low level continuation of this event still ongoing consider this..
At the end of the Puu Oo high fountains phase (July '86), as we had just gone through the 47th eruption at that vent, and were back in the office (HVO) for a few days when a helicopter pilot, who was flying a tour around the eruption site, noticed and radioed us with a report of a very small eruption happening about a mile and a half east of Puu Oo. And, amazingly, that new event hadn’t even trigger any concern instrumentally at the observatory. No obvious eq swarm, no heightened tremor signal, nothing that would have had us looking for it (electronic tilt and GPS didn't exist). It was just erupting.. and was so low level that when we got out there it was unremarkable. So much so that we hardly took any pictures. It wasn't flying in the air and there wasn't a lot of it. It was just lava oozing out of the ground. But we took the measurements we normally did when we were in the area and documented what was going on and being that it was so low level we went back to the office. Over the following days we kept in touch with helicopter pilots that were flying tours regularly in the area. Over a while we fell into a routine of going out once a week and documenting everything. And totally unbeknownst to us that vent, which was later named Kupaianaha, erupted for years. And it eventually destroyed Kalapana.
All's to say the potential that lies behind that last sentence in HVO's update is greater than it sounds. Not to say it will.. but hey..
By my reckoning, this event will be pau when the tilt, as seen in the first plot I posted in this series of posts, turns around, starts inflating again.