08-15-2024, 02:46 AM
Harry has spoken: http://punaweather.org/
"The GFS has been showing a vertical shear lowering to our southeast in a week or so (1st chart). As such it's been showing various solutions where a small tropical low forms in a westward moving wave nearer the equator (2nd chart). Sea surface temperatures continue to rise to our east and we could be at risk from the southeast as 26C temperatures extend nearly to our coast (3rd chart).
Models several days or a week out are not accurate, unless they happen to get lucky, but that's irrelevant. They do however give insights into the larger picture. Based on the model trends it looks like we're beginning our hurricane season."
"The GFS has been showing a vertical shear lowering to our southeast in a week or so (1st chart). As such it's been showing various solutions where a small tropical low forms in a westward moving wave nearer the equator (2nd chart). Sea surface temperatures continue to rise to our east and we could be at risk from the southeast as 26C temperatures extend nearly to our coast (3rd chart).
Models several days or a week out are not accurate, unless they happen to get lucky, but that's irrelevant. They do however give insights into the larger picture. Based on the model trends it looks like we're beginning our hurricane season."
Certainty will be the death of us.