08-31-2025, 09:24 PM
Sorry HOTPE, I was wrong about the NOAA going beyond five days. The 11am update continues to note that if the storm takes a more northerly track, i.e. closer to Hawaii, the strength would be less due to cooler ocean surface temperatures. Farther south, it would be stronger storm, but presumably more likely to miss us. And of course all of this can change quickly. The latest discussion also points out that the two best regarded prediction models, the ECMWF and GFS have dramatically different projections of forward speed.
Tom: Although it's way to early to make any assumptions, there is a longer outlook on Windy: https://www.windy.com/?19.593,-155.006,5 . They show the European (ECMWF) model with Kiko over or near Kapoho with 35-40 mph winds around 8pm on Tuesday, September 9. On the other hand, the GFS on Windy shows it passing north of us around the same time with somewhat stronger winds. Now you've probably noticed that that does not match what the NOAA said in terms of speed. Either Windy has not updated in the past hour, or their software is misinterpreting one or both of the models. If you go to Windy right now, it might look very different yet again.
Those differences are a clear message about the uncertainty of these things this far out.
Tom: Although it's way to early to make any assumptions, there is a longer outlook on Windy: https://www.windy.com/?19.593,-155.006,5 . They show the European (ECMWF) model with Kiko over or near Kapoho with 35-40 mph winds around 8pm on Tuesday, September 9. On the other hand, the GFS on Windy shows it passing north of us around the same time with somewhat stronger winds. Now you've probably noticed that that does not match what the NOAA said in terms of speed. Either Windy has not updated in the past hour, or their software is misinterpreting one or both of the models. If you go to Windy right now, it might look very different yet again.
Those differences are a clear message about the uncertainty of these things this far out.