08-31-2025, 10:56 PM
NOAA going beyond five days.
There’s probably many good reasons for the publicly distributed hurricane forecasts not to go too far into the future Chunkster. Most of us here have watched spaghetti models long enough to know how much accuracy they lose over extended forecast times. Most spaghetti models at this point in Kiko’s path will be wrong. I like to watch them though, but they could cause the general public to lose trust in the usually accurate 24-48 hour forecast, and throw the baby out with the bath water (5-10 day forecast).
There’s probably many good reasons for the publicly distributed hurricane forecasts not to go too far into the future Chunkster. Most of us here have watched spaghetti models long enough to know how much accuracy they lose over extended forecast times. Most spaghetti models at this point in Kiko’s path will be wrong. I like to watch them though, but they could cause the general public to lose trust in the usually accurate 24-48 hour forecast, and throw the baby out with the bath water (5-10 day forecast).