08-31-2025, 11:15 PM
Here's what Puna weatherman Harry Durgin has to say about it.
"Both the GFS and the ECMWF models show the storm strengthening as it is steered west by a ridge to the north. Looking out a week, both models show an upper level trough traversing the far northern Pacific and causing a weakness in the ridge. Both models also show the Eleven-E responding to the weakness in the ridge by gaining latitude. Also in both models we see Eleven-E resuming a westerly path when the upper level trough exits to the northeast, allowing the ridge to rebuild.
Where Eleven-E ends up after the interaction with the upper level trough determines how close it will be, and therefore what effects we can expect.
Along Eleven-E's path are colder waters to the north and also dry and stable air; as we've been seeing for much of this summer. Cold water and dry air limit a cyclone's strength, and as such we are expected to see weakening happen prior to the storm passing by or over us. How much weakening is determined in large part by the storm's path. A more northerly path means less access to tropical moisture and colder waters for a weaker storm.
Potential impacts are a little over a week away and there's plenty of time to see how Eleven-E progresses."
"Both the GFS and the ECMWF models show the storm strengthening as it is steered west by a ridge to the north. Looking out a week, both models show an upper level trough traversing the far northern Pacific and causing a weakness in the ridge. Both models also show the Eleven-E responding to the weakness in the ridge by gaining latitude. Also in both models we see Eleven-E resuming a westerly path when the upper level trough exits to the northeast, allowing the ridge to rebuild.
Where Eleven-E ends up after the interaction with the upper level trough determines how close it will be, and therefore what effects we can expect.
Along Eleven-E's path are colder waters to the north and also dry and stable air; as we've been seeing for much of this summer. Cold water and dry air limit a cyclone's strength, and as such we are expected to see weakening happen prior to the storm passing by or over us. How much weakening is determined in large part by the storm's path. A more northerly path means less access to tropical moisture and colder waters for a weaker storm.
Potential impacts are a little over a week away and there's plenty of time to see how Eleven-E progresses."