09-03-2025, 07:53 PM
(09-03-2025, 01:38 AM)HereOnThePrimalEdge Wrote: Is it possible that small changes, even temporary, in conditions from 240 hours away create relatively large movements in the forecast path?
As an example, when Apollo 13 was returning from the moon, the greater the distance from earth, the shorter the rocket burn required for a course correction.
If you're in a capsule in space and navigating your way back to Earth, you don't need to worry about sea temperatures, upper-level winds, humidity, air temperature, etc. On the other hand, forecasting the weather involves all those variables, plus other factors that can't be taken into account until they are known. It's why weather forecasts tend to be relatively accurate up to 3 days, usefully accurate up to 5 days, and beyond that time, they aren't accurate. Forecasting hurricane tracks and strengths relies on knowing the conditions several days ahead, and certainly beyond 5 days; those aren't well known at all.
It's not a matter of minor deviations in tracks making it hard to predict a future track; it's the uncertainty in what drives the hurricane, both in terms of its intensity and track, and what will ultimately cause it to dissipate. In this case, it seems likely sea temperatures east of Hawaii will weaken the storm, and it will unlikely be a significant threat to Hawaii. As predicted here a few days ago.