09-04-2025, 01:13 AM
(This post was last modified: 09-04-2025, 01:14 AM by Durian Fiend.)
(09-03-2025, 07:53 PM)TomK Wrote:(09-03-2025, 01:38 AM)HereOnThePrimalEdge Wrote: Is it possible that small changes, even temporary, in conditions from 240 hours away create relatively large movements in the forecast path?
As an example, when Apollo 13 was returning from the moon, the greater the distance from earth, the shorter the rocket burn required for a course correction.
...In this case, it seems likely sea temperatures east of Hawaii will weaken the storm, and it will unlikely be a significant threat to Hawaii. As predicted here a few days ago.
Only if it tracks north fairly soon, which of course is the forecast thanks to the trough. Even so, wind shear should play a stronger role in weakening it than cooler sea temperatures.
BTW, Harry Durgin on FB Puna weather just posted this: "There's a chance for Kiko could reach CAT 5 status. I am looking but have yet to find a storm of equal or higher intensity at this longitude. It may be a record." He also posted some data and a graph that I don't understand.