Neither the GFS or ECMWF models currently running on Windy.com look great for us on Tuesday of next week.
And still.. as per this evening's post by the NWS, as published on Big Island Video News at..
https://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2025/...f-hawaiʻi/
Where instead of any kind of OMG run for your lives.. the salient point is where it says..
the National Weather Service in Honolulu wrote on Wednesday evening. “A flash flood threat may develop over the islands in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame conditional on the exact track of the system.”
Which, for my money, is a whole lot better than all the other things they would be saying if in fact they felt this system was going to make a real hit as a still intact cyclonic system.
They further say..
By days 4 and 5, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler water with gradually increasing westerly vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture plummeting below 40 percent. These factors should lead to steady and eventually rapid weakening of Kiko as the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the east.
Which again seems to suggest they are confident in their assessment.. because if they weren't I suspect they'd be saying a whole lot more that 'oh well we might get some rain..'
And still.. as per this evening's post by the NWS, as published on Big Island Video News at..
https://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2025/...f-hawaiʻi/
Where instead of any kind of OMG run for your lives.. the salient point is where it says..
the National Weather Service in Honolulu wrote on Wednesday evening. “A flash flood threat may develop over the islands in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame conditional on the exact track of the system.”
Which, for my money, is a whole lot better than all the other things they would be saying if in fact they felt this system was going to make a real hit as a still intact cyclonic system.
They further say..
By days 4 and 5, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler water with gradually increasing westerly vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture plummeting below 40 percent. These factors should lead to steady and eventually rapid weakening of Kiko as the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the east.
Which again seems to suggest they are confident in their assessment.. because if they weren't I suspect they'd be saying a whole lot more that 'oh well we might get some rain..'