2025 Hurricane Season

[Durian Fiend]

It would be nice if Punaweb had a resident meteorologist, but I guess FB is punatic Harry Durgin's platform of choice.

Harry started out posting here, but someone didn’t find his weather comments appropriate.  Maybe because the weather was over Puna, not in Puna?  Harry’s changeover from Punaweb to Facebook:

Okay *. I don't think this is the appropriate place to have weather discussions. I don't want to confuse people with too much jargon. So I'm moving weather discussion to a new Facebook group "Puna Weather".

I suspect he prefers the FB format because it's better adapted for posting images.  Also there are few questions or discussions that develop there.

Here's his latest:    "ECMWF (aka Euro) is excellent at handling large features like upper level troughs. This model shows Kiko making a strong turn to towards the north in response to a digging upper level trough north of our island. The model shows a remnant low passing by to our north with little or no impacts of us.


GFS also excellent at large features shows a weaker interaction with the trough with Kiko making a more gradual turn and passing over us as a tropical depression with torrential rains and gusty winds.

HAFS-B is specially designed for high resolution analysis of tropical cyclones. This model is not optimized for large features, but... shows almost identical solutions for the subtropical ridge and upper level trough. The HAFS-B shows much less northward jog by Kiko and has the storm approaching from the southeast as a CAT2 hurricane.

I lean towards the a blend of the GFS and ECMWF, but it would be irresponsible to ignore the HAFS-B forecast."