09-05-2025, 11:59 PM
Here’s Durgins latest:
“Kiko is looking like an annular storm and as such is likely to survive the drier air to its northwest as it heads that in that direction. A stronger storm will turn more towards the upper level trough and farther away from us.
As Kiko approaches our latitude it is forecast to encounter southwesterly shear from the aforementioned upper level trough. The GFS keeps the storm intact, but weakens it significantly. The European model shows the storm possibly decoupling, with the upper level low heading mostly north and the low level circulation and moisture field heading towards us from the east. This scenario would bring widespread rain. But neither solution shows much wind for our island at this point. “
“Kiko is looking like an annular storm and as such is likely to survive the drier air to its northwest as it heads that in that direction. A stronger storm will turn more towards the upper level trough and farther away from us.
As Kiko approaches our latitude it is forecast to encounter southwesterly shear from the aforementioned upper level trough. The GFS keeps the storm intact, but weakens it significantly. The European model shows the storm possibly decoupling, with the upper level low heading mostly north and the low level circulation and moisture field heading towards us from the east. This scenario would bring widespread rain. But neither solution shows much wind for our island at this point. “