2025 Hurricane Season

[Durian Fiend]

The storm did maintain hurricane strength just beyond longitude 150,  so it would have been bad news for us if not for the upper level trough steering it northward. 
Without that effect, Kiko could have hit us as a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm, despite the cooler water temperatures near the islands.
Not enough rain! Perhaps more will be coming.

But that analysis assumes the storm wouldn't have changed its intensity if it had taken a different track.

True, but given that it encountered the weakening effect of wind shear by heading in a more northerly path, seems to me its intensity along a more southerly track would have been stronger for longer. Wind shear was always considered to be a more important factor than the slightly cooler ocean temperatures near our longitude