Hurricane season 2026

[Durian Fiend]

Thanks for that. Durgin knows his stuff and is certainly more expert in the field than I am. The one that struck me, though, is that I don't recall seeing such a region of instability that far west of the mainland this early in the season (in fact, before the season even started!). NOAA are saying that it has an 80% chance of becoming a storm in the next five days, but unlike Durgin, I didn't bother to check what any potential storm would have to survive to get here.

Still, it's not common to have a storm form in that region this time of year - possibly a result of a very strong El Niño this summer?

Ocean temperatures to our south are warmer than usual, as this map from Tropical tidbits shows.  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...obal_1.png

The specific El Nino index graph is:   https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...nino34.png

This link includes both of the above plus more info. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/