07-19-2026, 02:38 AM
As we’re getting closer to the time when hurricanes begin to form, I thought I’d link this El Niño update which is likely to affect our storm season. I’d never heard of the website before, but it’s been described as containing accurate information, but with click-bait style headlines.
The quote and chart below show El Niño is getting even stronger than previously expected.
But it’s not just the strength of the forecast that matters. We are also observing a trend in which each new forecast shows a stronger event. Below is an example from the last three ECMWF forecasts for the main ENSO region, released in March, April, and May. You can clearly see that each new run shows a stronger event.
![[Image: enso-regions-forecast-2026-weather-long-...t-runs.png]](https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/long-range/enso-regions-forecast-2026-weather-long-range-united-states-north-america-el-nino-development-latest-ecmwf-extended-data-record-peak-change-from-past-runs.png)
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range...europe-fa/
The quote and chart below show El Niño is getting even stronger than previously expected.
But it’s not just the strength of the forecast that matters. We are also observing a trend in which each new forecast shows a stronger event. Below is an example from the last three ECMWF forecasts for the main ENSO region, released in March, April, and May. You can clearly see that each new run shows a stronger event.
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range...europe-fa/