08-11-2026, 06:35 PM
kicking out spaghetti paths (in green, usual ECMWF model in orange)
Google WeatherNext shows their models in blue, either as dots or paths. There are two ECMWF models shown, as Google says for reference. One is multiple individual probabilities based on factors that may or may not occur over time, the other “a single, deterministic best-estimate forecast track.”
At this point, this far out in time, the variations in the multiple model runs are wildly divergent, so the single forecast track leaves much to be desired. In terms of accuracy.
The most troubling element I noticed this morning is that now, when you run the time forecast slider on the bottom of the page, both low systems converge over the Big Island at the same time.
Anyone know what that effect might generate?
Google WeatherNext shows their models in blue, either as dots or paths. There are two ECMWF models shown, as Google says for reference. One is multiple individual probabilities based on factors that may or may not occur over time, the other “a single, deterministic best-estimate forecast track.”
At this point, this far out in time, the variations in the multiple model runs are wildly divergent, so the single forecast track leaves much to be desired. In terms of accuracy.
The most troubling element I noticed this morning is that now, when you run the time forecast slider on the bottom of the page, both low systems converge over the Big Island at the same time.
Anyone know what that effect might generate?