Hurricane season 2026

[MyManao]

MyMan! Do you predict that the maunas will help protect us and degrade the storm, this time?

I don’t predict as much as I observe, think about, and occasionally point out patterns, things that become apparent with time.

Like the fact that a storm, a cyclonic weather system that is born on the water, and dependent upon it for its energy, is a vertical column that gets larger and more energetic as it feeds on the energy it gathers. And that once its outer bands encounters land it cannot help but lose some. If nothing else the land itself, being a relatively rough surface compared to the surface of the ocean introduces drag, and doesn't as efficiently transfer its heat, both of which contribute to the degradation of the system.

But more importantly, and specific to the islands, a circulating vertical column of water saturated air that is dependent upon it’s foundation, ie the ocean, and in an ideal state creates a symmetrical structure.. can not help but be disturbed by the presence of an immovable solid mass that appears on one side of the structure. 

The air that a cyclonic structure is made up moves, it flows, in a circle. In our hemisphere it moves counter clockwise. Over open ocean, with no obstacles present, as we have all seen countless times, the structure, when seen from above, has a fairly well defined symmetry, and often times observers will speak of the formation of storm's eye as a sign if it’s strength, it’s maturity. And, one of the first signs of the system degrading is the collapse of the eye.

With the approach to the island, and especially our’s with our large edifices, the symmetry of the storm is disturbed. How could it not be? The air that otherwise would flow through the space they occupy, if they weren’t there, has to go somewhere else. This change sets in motion events that cannot help but lesson the strength of any system that relies on its symmetry. And, regularly the eye becomes misshaped and collapses.

And, of course, with the lower elevation airmass disrupted, and the blocked portion redirected, depending on which quadrant of the system is sheared off the remaining could in one case be more moisture laden, or in another less.

And, as many have speculated, this in turn could create different results under different circumstances.. The movement of air being funneled through either saddle could be intensified.. the clouds being hemmed in more moisture laden.

Similarly, we hear talk of steering currents.. of masses of air off to one side or another of a cyclonic system that ‘steer’ it one way or another, that have an influence, that nudge the system. In the storm today we’ve heard talk of one such steering influence to the north that will keep it on a more westerly track. the same way as that our Mauna influence.. steer.. effect the path of a storm. They don’t reach into the heights so as to have a total effect on the entire column, but still they are of serious consequence lower down and in turn to the system as a whole.

And still, does the discontinuance of the system have to always equal its demise, or are other scenarios possible? A storm approaches, its symmetry disrupted, and yet after it passes there is still enough momentum that as it reconnects with warmer water and an open path it reforms and intensifies?

Obviously we don’t have near enough examples to have anything like a real sense of all the possibilities. But, regardless, our land mass is of consequence, and will always have an effect on any cyclonic system that comes within its influence. And no, ’brother ’Tang, that is not a prediction.. it’s just a simple physical fact.

And, oh btw, I love it when someone says our Maunas will ‘protect,' not because they will but because of the wholly irrational response some ‘scientists' have when they hear it. Of course the Maunas don’t ‘protect’ but damn they sure do affect.. and in a big way. A very big way. So yeah, it can be said they’re protective.. they have an affect and in most cases that is to deflect and lesson a cyclonic storm’s effect on the islands. But of course, we would have to collect dozens, hundreds, more examples of this happening than all of our ‘recorded history’ already provides before we could say we know what those effects will be in any given situation.

And, again, brother ‘Tang. I make no predictions.. only share a lifetime of observations. And, I imagine, with the approach of this one things won’t be much different..