08-15-2026, 04:11 AM
I gathered this from BIVN:
From the Central Pacific Hurricane Center discussion posted at 5 p.m. HST:
Lala has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with most of the deep convection remaining over and north of the center. However, data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the cyclone has strengthened some this afternoon. Pressure observations from nearby NDBC buoy 51004 have also been useful in assessing the cyclone as it passes close to the station. Based on a blend of the aircraft data, buoy observations, and overall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt.
The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt. A mid-level high pressure system anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands should continue to steer Lala generally west-northwestward during the next several days. Some slowing of the forward motion is possible as the cyclone approaches the Big Island and begins to interact with the island’s terrain on Saturday. Short-term deviations in the track are also possible during this time. After passing near or over the southern portion of the Big Island, Lala could make a subtle turn toward the northwest in the lee of the island before resuming a west-northwestward motion south of the smaller islands through the remainder of the weekend. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the mult-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 h while environmental conditions remain generally favorable. Although mid-level dry air continues to be a limiting factor, the inner circulation could become somewhat more compact and organized as Lala approaches the southern portion of the Big Island. The NHC forecast therefore continues to show Lala reaching hurricane strength near the time it reaches the Big Island on Saturday. Interaction with the island’s terrain should then disrupt the low-level circulation and result in weakening, with increasing vertical wind shear associated with an upper-level low providing an additional negative influence later in the weekend. Some re-strengthening is forecast early next week as vertical wind shear relaxes and Lala remains over warm sea surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the middle- to upper-end of the guidance envelope.
Underlining by me for emphasis and to tie back to my answer to 'Tang's question earlier in this thread.
From the Central Pacific Hurricane Center discussion posted at 5 p.m. HST:
Lala has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with most of the deep convection remaining over and north of the center. However, data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the cyclone has strengthened some this afternoon. Pressure observations from nearby NDBC buoy 51004 have also been useful in assessing the cyclone as it passes close to the station. Based on a blend of the aircraft data, buoy observations, and overall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt.
The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt. A mid-level high pressure system anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands should continue to steer Lala generally west-northwestward during the next several days. Some slowing of the forward motion is possible as the cyclone approaches the Big Island and begins to interact with the island’s terrain on Saturday. Short-term deviations in the track are also possible during this time. After passing near or over the southern portion of the Big Island, Lala could make a subtle turn toward the northwest in the lee of the island before resuming a west-northwestward motion south of the smaller islands through the remainder of the weekend. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the mult-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 h while environmental conditions remain generally favorable. Although mid-level dry air continues to be a limiting factor, the inner circulation could become somewhat more compact and organized as Lala approaches the southern portion of the Big Island. The NHC forecast therefore continues to show Lala reaching hurricane strength near the time it reaches the Big Island on Saturday. Interaction with the island’s terrain should then disrupt the low-level circulation and result in weakening, with increasing vertical wind shear associated with an upper-level low providing an additional negative influence later in the weekend. Some re-strengthening is forecast early next week as vertical wind shear relaxes and Lala remains over warm sea surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the middle- to upper-end of the guidance envelope.
Underlining by me for emphasis and to tie back to my answer to 'Tang's question earlier in this thread.