08-17-2026, 05:56 PM
out. ... Still the champ.
…
Yes, no, kinda, maybe?
I probably should have specified ECMWF is still my personal champ. Based on my preferences, criteria, and requirements.
When storms are first forecast I check models and decide how much it might require my attention. Should I start preparing?
As the storm gets closer I adjust those factors and responses.
Three days out I generally take the forecasts and models accuracy quite seriously and again adjust accordingly.
Two days out, I act as if the forecast is 100% accurate. Generally the models at this point coalesce. This time there were too many variables for that to happen.
For my purposes, the ECMWF provided me with the best information when it counted, in order to respond as necessary with an appropriate plan. The forecast was not perfect, but good enough, and in my judgment the best for my needs.
Clearly, in the future, it’s best to continue to take all the models, and forecasts into account. I would not by any means use only ECMWF when the next storm forms. But I would still weight it heavily in my personal calculations.
…
Yes, no, kinda, maybe?
I probably should have specified ECMWF is still my personal champ. Based on my preferences, criteria, and requirements.
When storms are first forecast I check models and decide how much it might require my attention. Should I start preparing?
As the storm gets closer I adjust those factors and responses.
Three days out I generally take the forecasts and models accuracy quite seriously and again adjust accordingly.
Two days out, I act as if the forecast is 100% accurate. Generally the models at this point coalesce. This time there were too many variables for that to happen.
For my purposes, the ECMWF provided me with the best information when it counted, in order to respond as necessary with an appropriate plan. The forecast was not perfect, but good enough, and in my judgment the best for my needs.
Clearly, in the future, it’s best to continue to take all the models, and forecasts into account. I would not by any means use only ECMWF when the next storm forms. But I would still weight it heavily in my personal calculations.