09-23-2026, 02:06 PM
Yes, it does look bad. Durgin:
"...15E is broad and disorganized so it will take time to form its structure. From the satellite animation shear is less than 12 hours ago. The GFS shows the shear continuing to decrease providing 15E with an environment favorable to further intensification... warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate shear, and plenty of moist air to work with. As such all models show 15E developing into a cyclone as it moves towards the north in response to a break in the ridge being caused by an upper level trough. The handling of this trough breaks into two camps.
On one side the GFS and the ICON take the trough farther west and south quickly. As the trough moves, 15E continually turns towards it, resulting in a path that avoids our island.
On the other side we have the ECMWF and the CMC which have a more easterly solution for the upper level trough. As 15E moves towards the trough it takes a path over our island..."
"...15E is broad and disorganized so it will take time to form its structure. From the satellite animation shear is less than 12 hours ago. The GFS shows the shear continuing to decrease providing 15E with an environment favorable to further intensification... warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate shear, and plenty of moist air to work with. As such all models show 15E developing into a cyclone as it moves towards the north in response to a break in the ridge being caused by an upper level trough. The handling of this trough breaks into two camps.
On one side the GFS and the ICON take the trough farther west and south quickly. As the trough moves, 15E continually turns towards it, resulting in a path that avoids our island.
On the other side we have the ECMWF and the CMC which have a more easterly solution for the upper level trough. As 15E moves towards the trough it takes a path over our island..."