09-23-2026, 10:26 PM
The National Hurricane Center doesn't mention the Maunas,
Nolo is moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt. There is no
change to the synoptic reasoning with a ridge located to the
northeast of Hawaii forecast to weaken and push eastward as a mid-
latitude trough deepens over the northwestern Hawaiian islands.
This pattern is likely to the cause Nolo to slow down tonight and
then turn north-northeastward by tomorrow with some increase in
forward speed. The trough is forecast to move westward this weekend
as the ridge rebuilds north of Hawaii, which should force a sharp
leftward turn while the cyclone is close to the Big Island. It
really depends on how far northeast Nolo gets before the ridge
rebuilds, with the solutions that gain the most latitude in the
next few days generally getting closest to Hawaii. Although there
has been a small southward shift in the overall guidance on this
cycle, there is still a large spread approaching 250 n mi from
north-to-south by the weekend. The new forecast is nudged south on
this advisory, but it should be considered low confidence.
Nolo is moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt. There is no
change to the synoptic reasoning with a ridge located to the
northeast of Hawaii forecast to weaken and push eastward as a mid-
latitude trough deepens over the northwestern Hawaiian islands.
This pattern is likely to the cause Nolo to slow down tonight and
then turn north-northeastward by tomorrow with some increase in
forward speed. The trough is forecast to move westward this weekend
as the ridge rebuilds north of Hawaii, which should force a sharp
leftward turn while the cyclone is close to the Big Island. It
really depends on how far northeast Nolo gets before the ridge
rebuilds, with the solutions that gain the most latitude in the
next few days generally getting closest to Hawaii. Although there
has been a small southward shift in the overall guidance on this
cycle, there is still a large spread approaching 250 n mi from
north-to-south by the weekend. The new forecast is nudged south on
this advisory, but it should be considered low confidence.