09-24-2026, 05:14 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-24-2026, 05:16 PM by HereOnThePrimalEdge.)
Much less rain last night than predicted. I checked in with Harry:
Nolo has not made much northerly progress over the past day, so the north turn starts at a more southerly point and ends at a more southerly point supporting the scenario that damaging winds remain offshore, except at higher elevations and downwind of slopes.
My weather app had said 4” of rain each day for the next 3 days, this morning that’s been adjusted down to 2” a day (for HPP). The wind estimates have also been reduced. ECMWF has one of the more favorable forecasts, showing the storm will turn west earlier and further south from Big Island, as well as staying a tropical storm, not developing into a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane as some models show. The turn to the west should occur about 7 AM Saturday morning (1700 UTC = 7 AM HST) sooner is better, later brings the storm closer to us.
Higher rain totals and stronger winds up Hawaiian Acres, Volcano, Na’alehu, etc. but all in all a more favorable forecast this morning than yesterday. The storm is slow moving, so Thursday-Friday-Saturday will be wet and windy.
Nolo has not made much northerly progress over the past day, so the north turn starts at a more southerly point and ends at a more southerly point supporting the scenario that damaging winds remain offshore, except at higher elevations and downwind of slopes.
My weather app had said 4” of rain each day for the next 3 days, this morning that’s been adjusted down to 2” a day (for HPP). The wind estimates have also been reduced. ECMWF has one of the more favorable forecasts, showing the storm will turn west earlier and further south from Big Island, as well as staying a tropical storm, not developing into a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane as some models show. The turn to the west should occur about 7 AM Saturday morning (1700 UTC = 7 AM HST) sooner is better, later brings the storm closer to us.
Higher rain totals and stronger winds up Hawaiian Acres, Volcano, Na’alehu, etc. but all in all a more favorable forecast this morning than yesterday. The storm is slow moving, so Thursday-Friday-Saturday will be wet and windy.