09-25-2026, 03:06 AM
A good summary of the situation from Durgin, 3 hours ago. I added the bolding:
"...Yesterday all the high resolution models, except for the HMON, turned Nolo west between 17N and 18N, far enough away to keep the strongest winds offshore. This afternoon the HMON joined the club and now also shows Nolo turning west around 18N.
Models are in unison calling for the ridge to the north of Nolo to rebuild and push Nolo off to the west late Friday or early Saturday. The question will be how fast Nolo moves north between now and then. Nolo's damaging winds are about 240 miles away and the storm is forecast to begin turning west in about 24 hours, so the storm would need to pick up speed and head north at 10 mph. I'll be keeping an eye on that track speed, because we don't want any bad surprises.
If everything happens as expected winds are strong and gusty with some power outages. The rain is still expected to be heavy with widespread flooding, especially Friday night into early Saturday..."
"...Yesterday all the high resolution models, except for the HMON, turned Nolo west between 17N and 18N, far enough away to keep the strongest winds offshore. This afternoon the HMON joined the club and now also shows Nolo turning west around 18N.
Models are in unison calling for the ridge to the north of Nolo to rebuild and push Nolo off to the west late Friday or early Saturday. The question will be how fast Nolo moves north between now and then. Nolo's damaging winds are about 240 miles away and the storm is forecast to begin turning west in about 24 hours, so the storm would need to pick up speed and head north at 10 mph. I'll be keeping an eye on that track speed, because we don't want any bad surprises.
If everything happens as expected winds are strong and gusty with some power outages. The rain is still expected to be heavy with widespread flooding, especially Friday night into early Saturday..."